Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:40:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

9C
0x9cef…8fa3
weather · 765 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$667 +11%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$673 · open −$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$673
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses256 / 507
Open positions2
Markets (closed)763 / 765
History coverage44d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day77.5
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 763 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days−$210
14 days−$20
30 days+$242
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 13? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-92%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 13? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 11? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 11? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 10? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 12? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$3 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$7 +705%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$2 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 −$5 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$8 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$2 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 +$14 +185%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $30 +$13 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$7 +73%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? Jun 13 $14 +$24 +170%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$3 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$14 +383%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$8 +75%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$9 +170%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $28 +$23 +84%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $11 −$10 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $14 +$12 +85%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $13 −$12 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $36 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$2 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$6 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$3 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 12? Jun 12 $81 −$37 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 12? Jun 11 $3 −$2 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $20 −$16 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$12 +232%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$667
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? SELL No 28¢ $8 9m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 13? SELL Yes 13¢ $0 9m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 36¢ $10 18m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 25¢ $0 19m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? SELL Yes 91¢ $6 25m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 13? SELL Yes 41¢ $4 38m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 13? SELL Yes 41¢ $2 41m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? SELL Yes 66¢ $2 59m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? SELL Yes 66¢ $3 59m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 13? SELL Yes 49¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 13? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 13? SELL Yes 26¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? SELL Yes 19¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? SELL Yes 46¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? SELL Yes 46¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? SELL Yes 46¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 13? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? SELL Yes 23¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 232 -21.0% -28.5% 22% 18% -17.9%
≤30d 606 +11.3% +0.7% 31% 28% -5.6%
≤90d 763 +17.1% +6.0% 34% 30% -0.2%
all 763 +17.1% +6.0% 34% 30% -0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover77.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.0% 30% -0.2%
10% ← realistic here -4.2% 27% -9.8%
15% -13.4% 24% -18.5%
20% -21.9% 21% -26.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.10 · official $0.10 (match) · 3500 history records