Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:39:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
9C 0x9cee…99e0 crypto 43 markets active 0h ago coverage 548d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$152 (+5%) realized +$147 · open +$5
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate58%23W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% +$129
other 22% $0
politics 3% $0
sports 1% −$1
culture 1% $0
tech 1% +$1
finance 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 5 -3.7% -12.9% 60% 40% +0.7%
all 40 -1.1% -10.5% 58% 30% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 30% -5.3%
10% -19.1% 28% -14.3%
15% -26.9% 28% -22.6%
20% -34.1% 28% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% too few recent
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$43 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

548d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized+$147
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses23 / 17
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)40 / 43
History coverage548d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET Up 41¢ 50¢ $50 $60 +$10 (+19%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Up $5 $0 −$4 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - May 1, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET May 01 $77 +$11 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET May 01 $153 +$14 +9%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 01 $12 $0 -2%
Trail Blazers vs. Hornets May 01 $13 +$8 +60%
Shymkent 2: Denis Yevseyev vs Mili Poljicak Apr 30 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Feb 25 $100 −$98 -98%
Solana Up or Down - February 25, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Feb 25 $100 +$105 +105%
Solana Up or Down - February 25, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Feb 25 $100 +$77 +77%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 25, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Feb 25 $100 +$88 +88%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 25, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Feb 25 $100 +$87 +87%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 25, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Feb 25 $70 +$55 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 25, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Feb 25 $70 +$71 +102%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 25, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Feb 25 $100 +$88 +88%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 25, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Feb 25 $100 +$93 +93%
Solana Up or Down - February 25, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Feb 25 $100 −$98 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 25, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Feb 25 $50 +$48 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 25, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Feb 25 $110 +$103 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Feb 25 $70 −$69 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 25, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Feb 25 $110 −$108 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Feb 25 $70 −$69 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 25, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Feb 25 $70 −$69 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 24, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Feb 25 $50 −$49 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 24, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Feb 25 $50 −$49 -98%
Will "Wake Up Dead Man" be the top US Netflix movie this week? (Decemb Feb 24 $10 $0 +1%
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil's December 2025 meeti Dec 20 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Dec 01 $106 −$106 -100%
Will 'Honey' be the lowest ranked song from Taylor Swift’s new album o Dec 01 $16 $0 +2%
Will Alibaba have the second best AI model on September 30? Oct 08 $15 +$1 +5%
Will anyone say "Datacenter" during the Q2 2025 Nvidia earnings call? Sep 28 $15 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. national debt hit $37 trillion in 2025? Aug 21 $15 $0 +1%
FIFA Club World Cup: 175+ Goals Scored? Jul 16 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Colorado Rockies have the worst regular season record in the Jun 30 $11 −$6 -49%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander score the most total points in the NBA Fi Jun 16 $13 $0 -1%
Will the National Council for the Defense of Democracy – Forces for th Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Will the Democratic candidate win the NYC mayoral election? May 23 $12 $0 -1%
Trump cuts taxes in 2025? May 05 $21 $0 -2%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Apr 21 $21 $0 +2%
Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? Feb 23 $21 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 17 $20 +$1 +3%
Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024? Dec 27 $537 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $51 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up $5 5m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 1h
Solana Up or Down - May 1, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $25 44d
Solana Up or Down - May 1, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 44d
Solana Up or Down - May 1, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $36 44d
Solana Up or Down - May 1, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 44d
Solana Up or Down - May 1, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $28 44d
Solana Up or Down - May 1, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 44d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $56 44d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 44d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $25 44d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $29 44d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $27 44d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 44d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 44d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $54 44d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $25 44d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $25 44d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 62¢ $12 44d
Shymkent 2: Denis Yevseyev vs Mili Poljicak BUY Denis Yevseyev 27¢ $3 46d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 63¢ $12 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $100 109d
Solana Up or Down - February 25, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $100 109d
Solana Up or Down - February 25, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $100 109d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 25, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $100 109d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.07 · official $98.99 · 100 history records