Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:56:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9ced…60fb crypto 246 markets active 1d ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$720 (-8%) realized −$720 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate49%121W / 125L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day29.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$7
14 days−$35
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$891
sports 1% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -15.6% -23.6% 60% 17% -13.5%
≤30d 77 +1.0% -8.6% 45% 16% -16.6%
≤90d 246 -9.2% -17.9% 49% 15% -18.4%
all 246 -9.2% -17.9% 49% 15% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.9% 15% -18.4%
10% ← realistic here -25.7% 8% -26.2%
15% -32.9% 4% -33.4%
20% -39.5% 4% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$12 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$720
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses121 / 125
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)246 / 246
History coverage32d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day29.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 246 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham 2: Roman Safiullin vs August Holmgren Jun 16 $12 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Khachanov (-1.5) vs Quinn (+1.5) Jun 16 $12 $0 +0%
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Andres Santamarta Jun 16 $12 $0 +0%
ITF Klosters: Anais Gabriel vs Mara Guth Jun 16 $12 $0 +1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$3 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 10 $24 −$7 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 10 $27 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 10 $13 −$4 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 10 $7 −$2 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 10 $17 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 10 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 10 $13 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham 2: Roman Safiullin vs August Holmgren BUY Roman Safiullin 100¢ $12 32h
Set Handicap: Khachanov (-1.5) vs Quinn (+1.5) BUY Quinn 100¢ $12 38h
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Andres Santamarta BUY Max Alcala Gurri 100¢ $12 39h
ITF Klosters: Anais Gabriel vs Mara Guth BUY Mara Guth 99¢ $12 41h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $10 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 99¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1163 history records