Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:03:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9cec…a491 world 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 258d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$21 (-1%) realized −$22 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate39%20W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% +$4
other 21% −$24
politics 12% $0
sports 7% $0
crypto 3% −$1
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.4% -9.1% 40% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 19 +0.6% -8.9% 42% 5% -9.2%
≤90d 19 +0.6% -8.9% 42% 5% -9.2%
all 51 -1.7% -11.0% 39% 4% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 4% -10.9%
10% -19.5% 0% -19.4%
15% -27.3% 0% -27.2%
20% -34.4% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

258d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses20 / 31
Open positions2
Markets (closed)51 / 53
History coverage258d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 81¢ 82¢ $44 $44 +$1 (+1%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $40 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 24 $39 +$1 +2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $39 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $17 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $39 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $53 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $129 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $43 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $39 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $24 +$3 +14%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 11 $31 −$1 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 11 $19 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $37 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $98 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $39 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $58 −$1 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $2 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $36 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 04 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Feb 01 $2 $0 -9%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Jan 31 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $21 $0 -0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $21 $0 +0%
Will G2 Esports win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 14 $21 $0 +2%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Oct 22 $7 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 Oct 22 $23 −$2 -8%
Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025? Oct 22 $20 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 22 $3 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 21 $22 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 21 $22 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 19 $2 $0 +18%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 19 $22 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in October? Oct 18 $21 $0 +0%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by June 30? Oct 18 $23 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? Oct 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Oct 17 $23 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 14 $57 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey? Oct 13 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 13 $23 $0 -0%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by December 31? Oct 12 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 12 $1 $0 +5%
Will Emmanuel Macron be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 12 $22 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Oct 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 11 $21 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? Oct 11 $19 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in October? Oct 10 $23 −$1 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $44 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $40 15h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $40 19h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 50¢ $4 23h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 50¢ $36 23h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 49¢ $17 25h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 49¢ $23 25h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $2 27h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $37 27h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $39 32h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $13 36h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 36h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $17 38h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $11 42h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $26 42h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $1 42h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $2 46h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $37 46h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $37 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $22 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $14 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $43 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $43 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $43 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $43 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 39¢ $16 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $16 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $43 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $43 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $11 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.37 · official $44.28 (match) · 185 history records