Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:39:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
9C 0x9cec…39b3 other 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 243d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$175 (-21%) realized −$196 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate62%10W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$221now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 38% −$117
other 28% +$17
politics 19% −$96
economics 7% +$14
world 5% +$1
crypto 2% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-24.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +4.3% -5.7% 50% 0% -5.7%
≤30d 6 +21.0% +9.5% 83% 33% +9.4%
≤90d 6 +21.0% +9.5% 83% 33% +9.4%
all 16 -16.1% -24.1% 62% 25% -37.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.1% 25% -37.5%
10% -31.4% 19% -43.5%
15% -38.0% 19% -48.9%
20% -44.1% 12% -53.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -56% → late +24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$43 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

243d coverage
Net worth$221
Realized−$196
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses10 / 6
Open positions5
Markets (closed)16 / 21
History coverage243d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $119 $122 +$3 (+3%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $22 $31 +$8 (+37%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $20 $29 +$9 (+43%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $18 $24 +$6 (+33%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $21 $0 -2%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $21 +$2 +10%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? May 27 $16 +$11 +68%
China x Taiwan military clash by December 31? May 27 $20 $0 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? May 27 $20 $0 +2%
Cavaliers vs. Pacers May 27 $27 +$13 +47%
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? Feb 10 $20 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Feb 10 $21 +$13 +62%
Rockets vs. Jazz Jan 05 $118 +$22 +19%
Spread: Magic (-6.5) Jan 05 $21 −$21 -100%
Thunder vs. Warriors Dec 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Bucks vs. Wizards Dec 04 $113 −$113 -100%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on November Nov 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? Nov 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Nov 02 $42 +$1 +2%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? Oct 26 $127 −$85 -67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $20 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $20 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $23 47h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $23 47h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $18 17d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 17d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 17d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 17d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 18d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 18d
Spread: Magic (-6.5) BUY Magic 57¢ $21 193d
Thunder vs. Warriors BUY Warriors 16¢ $9 194d
Thunder vs. Warriors BUY Warriors 16¢ $9 194d
Cavaliers vs. Pacers SELL Cavaliers 100¢ $39 194d
Cavaliers vs. Pacers BUY Cavaliers 68¢ $27 195d
Bucks vs. Wizards BUY Bucks 80¢ $113 195d
Rockets vs. Jazz SELL Rockets 100¢ $140 196d
Rockets vs. Jazz BUY Rockets 84¢ $118 196d
China x Taiwan military clash by December 31? SELL No 98¢ $20 196d
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? SELL No 98¢ $20 196d
Will Trump visit China by March 31? SELL No 92¢ $27 196d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? SELL Yes 87¢ $33 196d
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? SELL No 99¢ $20 196d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 54¢ $21 207d
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on November BUY No 100¢ $10 224d
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? BUY Yes 48¢ $21 224d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 98¢ $42 231d
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? SELL No 6¢ $41 231d
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? BUY No 18¢ $107 238d
Will Trump visit China by March 31? BUY No 55¢ $8 242d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $220.69 · official $220.82 (match) · 69 history records