Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:32:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9C 0x9cea…ffd2 other 329 markets active 1h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,508 (+4%) realized +$1,239 · open +$269
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate60%182W / 119L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$2,823now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$181
14 days−$402
30 days−$142
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 48% +$1,355
other 14% −$389
sports 12% −$465
politics 11% +$699
world 11% +$364
tech 3% +$21
crypto 1% −$41
culture 0% −$136
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -13.8% -22.0% 62% 48% -14.4%
≤30d 140 -0.8% -10.2% 61% 50% -9.9%
≤90d 267 -5.7% -14.7% 60% 52% -5.7%
all 301 -5.2% -14.2% 60% 51% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 51% -6.2%
10% -22.4% 36% -15.2%
15% -29.9% 19% -23.4%
20% -36.8% 11% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$41 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$2,823
Realized+$1,239
Unrealized+$269
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses182 / 119
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions28
Markets (closed)301 / 329
History coverage104d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 28 History 301 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 82¢ 94¢ $270 $310 +$40 (+15%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 76¢ 90¢ $256 $300 +$44 (+17%)
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 96¢ $248 $270 +$22 (+9%)
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 77¢ 92¢ $204 $245 +$41 (+20%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? No 70¢ 99¢ $162 $229 +$67 (+41%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 68¢ 99¢ $153 $223 +$70 (+46%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? Yes 79¢ 88¢ $159 $176 +$17 (+11%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 90¢ 88¢ $180 $175 −$5 (-3%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? No 83¢ 68¢ $166 $135 −$30 (-18%)
Will Neymar score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 89¢ $125 $124 −$1 (-1%)
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 81¢ 100¢ $81 $100 +$19 (+23%)
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 70¢ 74¢ $87 $93 +$6 (+6%)
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 97¢ $71 $87 +$16 (+22%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? No 82¢ 78¢ $47 $45 −$2 (-5%)
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 83¢ 96¢ $35 $40 +$5 (+16%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 76¢ 65¢ $45 $39 −$6 (-14%)
Will Alphonso Davies score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 75¢ 76¢ $38 $38 +$1 (+2%)
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 46¢ $60 $34 −$26 (-43%)
Will Paraguay be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $32 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Will there be 4 or more ChatGPT outages in June 2026? No 53¢ 33¢ $48 $30 −$18 (-37%)
Will Moisés Caicedo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 65¢ 82¢ $23 $29 +$6 (+27%)
Will Luka Modrić score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 49¢ 36¢ $24 $18 −$6 (-25%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 74¢ $13 $15 +$1 (+10%)
Will Tunisia finish last in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 57¢ 86¢ $8 $12 +$4 (+50%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 24¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -81%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $7 −$5 -73%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $24 −$9 -35%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $98 +$15 +16%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $73 on June 18? Jun 18 $148 +$22 +15%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $78 on June 18? Jun 18 $322 +$32 +10%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $54 −$53 -99%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 17? Jun 17 $178 +$22 +12%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $79 on June 17? Jun 17 $192 +$8 +4%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $77 on June 17? Jun 17 $296 −$67 -23%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $78 on June 17? Jun 17 $352 +$18 +5%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $240 −$31 -13%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $82 on June 16? Jun 16 $172 +$28 +16%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $83 on June 16? Jun 16 $37 +$3 +10%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $81 on June 16? Jun 16 $67 +$3 +5%
Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 16 $50 +$33 +67%
Will there be a red flag during the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 16 $88 +$12 +14%
Will New Zealand finish last in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gro Jun 16 $15 −$4 -29%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on June 15? Jun 15 $158 +$8 +5%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $82 on June 15? Jun 15 $147 +$27 +19%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $13 +$3 +23%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $76 −$55 -72%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $25 +$5 +20%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $120 −$119 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $50 −$50 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $24 +$11 +47%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $25 +$12 +46%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $183 −$79 -43%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $24 +$6 +24%
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) Jun 13 $29 +$11 +37%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $20 +$12 +58%
Will Oscar Piastri get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Pr Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $15 +$5 +32%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 12? Jun 12 $120 +$20 +16%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 12? Jun 12 $47 +$11 +22%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 12? Jun 12 $101 +$11 +11%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $17 +$13 +73%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $26 +$8 +31%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 12? Jun 12 $27 −$21 -78%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? Jun 12 $205 +$28 +13%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 11? Jun 11 $88 +$12 +13%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 11? Jun 11 $221 +$44 +20%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $22 +$8 +37%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 11? Jun 11 $51 +$9 +18%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $36 +$11 +31%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $25 +$5 +21%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 11? Jun 11 $13 −$11 -88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $32 1h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 2h
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 2h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 90¢ $181 2h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 3h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $7 14h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 40¢ $16 16h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 86¢ $94 27h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 84¢ $4 27h
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 70¢ $88 28h
Will Neymar score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $90 29h
Will Neymar score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $35 29h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $73 on June 18? BUY Yes 85¢ $4 30h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $73 on June 18? BUY Yes 85¢ $21 30h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $73 on June 18? BUY Yes 87¢ $13 33h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $73 on June 18? BUY Yes 87¢ $5 33h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $73 on June 18? BUY Yes 87¢ $104 33h
Will there be 4 or more ChatGPT outages in June 2026? SELL No 11¢ $11 38h
Will there be 4 or more ChatGPT outages in June 2026? SELL No 12¢ $4 38h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $78 on June 18? BUY No 92¢ $168 38h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $78 on June 18? BUY No 91¢ $27 39h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $78 on June 18? BUY No 89¢ $127 39h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $54 39h
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $136 2d
Will there be 4 or more ChatGPT outages in June 2026? SELL No 10¢ $5 2d
Will there be 4 or more ChatGPT outages in June 2026? SELL No 12¢ $6 2d
Will there be 4 or more ChatGPT outages in June 2026? SELL No 13¢ $3 2d
Will there be 4 or more ChatGPT outages in June 2026? SELL No 14¢ $11 2d
Will there be 4 or more ChatGPT outages in June 2026? SELL No 15¢ $6 2d
Will there be 4 or more ChatGPT outages in June 2026? SELL No 15¢ $13 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,823.05 · official $2,823.05 (match) · 1130 history records