Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:23:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

9C
0x9ce5…9906
crypto · 15 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$115 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$125 · open −$97
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$64
Realized−$125
Unrealized−$97
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses6 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage4d
Avg bet$139
Trades / day23.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 14 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$125
7 days−$125
14 days−$125
30 days−$125
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $160 $64 −$97 (-60%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $201 +$12 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $81 −$6 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 14 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $205 +$99 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $266 −$266 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $330 +$80 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$28 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $186 +$14 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $25 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 68% −$125
politics 32% −$97
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $101 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $76 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $105 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $106 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $29 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $101 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $101 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $102 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 5h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 2¢ $30 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $11 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $100 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-41.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -34.9% -41.1% 43% 29% -17.5%
≤30d 14 -34.9% -41.1% 43% 29% -17.5%
≤90d 14 -34.9% -41.1% 43% 29% -17.5%
all 14 -34.9% -41.1% 43% 29% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover23.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -41.1% 29% -17.5%
10% ← realistic here -46.7% 29% -25.4%
15% -51.8% 14% -32.6%
20% -56.6% 7% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.75 · official $63.75 (match) · 107 history records