Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T07:15:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

9C
0x9ce3…ac2b
weather · 101 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$4 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$35
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses81 / 14
Open positions6
Markets (closed)95 / 101
History coverage28d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 6 History 95 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$3
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 14? No 91¢ 100¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? No 90¢ 92¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 14? No 92¢ 94¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 14? No 94¢ 92¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? No 87¢ 76¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-13%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 14? No 92¢ 93¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on June 10? No 93¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 12? No 94¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 13? Jun 14 $6 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 13 $6 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 13? Jun 13 $6 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 13? Jun 13 $6 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 13 $6 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 13 $6 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 13 $6 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 12? Jun 13 $6 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $6 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $6 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $6 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 11? Jun 12 $6 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 11? Jun 12 $6 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 10? Jun 11 $6 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 10? Jun 11 $6 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 10 $6 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June Jun 10 $6 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 10 $6 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 10? Jun 10 $6 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 96°F or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $6 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 9? Jun 10 $6 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 9? Jun 10 $6 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 9? Jun 09 $6 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 9? Jun 09 $6 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 9? Jun 09 $6 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 5? Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $6 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 8? Jun 09 $6 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 8? Jun 09 $6 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $5 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 8? Jun 08 $6 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on June 8? Jun 08 $6 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 7? Jun 08 $2 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 7? Jun 07 $6 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 7? Jun 07 $6 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 7? Jun 07 $6 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 6? Jun 07 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 6? Jun 06 $6 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 6? Jun 06 $6 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 6? Jun 06 $6 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 6? Jun 06 $6 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 6? Jun 06 $6 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 6? Jun 06 $6 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 6? Jun 06 $6 +$1 +10%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 6? Jun 06 $6 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 99% +$7
crypto 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $6 42m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? BUY No 87¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? BUY No 90¢ $6 5h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 14? BUY No 91¢ $6 5h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 91¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $6 9h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $6 11h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 14? BUY No 92¢ $6 11h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY No 92¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 13? BUY No 91¢ $6 11h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $6 11h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $6 11h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $5 15h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 93¢ $5 22h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 13? BUY No 94¢ $6 23h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 13? BUY No 93¢ $6 23h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 13? BUY No 93¢ $6 23h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? BUY No 93¢ $6 23h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 12? BUY No 94¢ $6 36h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $7 36h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY No 88¢ $1 37h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY No 88¢ $5 37h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $6 38h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY No 86¢ $6 39h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY No 94¢ $6 44h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 93¢ $6 46h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 93¢ $6 46h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 12? BUY No 94¢ $6 46h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $7 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +0.0% -9.5% 93% 10% -9.8%
≤30d 95 -2.1% -11.4% 85% 13% -9.3%
≤90d 95 -2.1% -11.4% 85% 13% -9.3%
all 95 -2.1% -11.4% 85% 13% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 13% -9.3%
10% -19.9% 2% -18.0%
15% -27.7% 2% -25.9%
20% -34.7% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.95 · official $35.09 (match) · 206 history records