Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:15:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
9C 0x9ce0…2b8a sports 651 markets active 2h ago coverage 64d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 63d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,157 (-0%) realized −$1,120 · open −$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate66%520W / 269L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$603per market
Trades / day37.6pace
Fees−$211est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$973now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 64d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$1,305
other 37% +$1,614
finance 2% −$615
politics 0% −$31
world 0% +$39
weather 0% −$126
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-27.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 177 -84.9% -86.3% 13% 1% -47.6%
≤30d 308 -50.9% -55.6% 39% 3% -17.8%
≤90d 789 -20.2% -27.8% 66% 6% -11.5%
all 789 -20.2% -27.8% 66% 6% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.8% 6% -11.5%
10% -34.7% 4% -20.0%
15% ← realistic here -41.0% 3% -27.7%
20% -46.8% 1% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$61 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$973
Realized−$1,120
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses520 / 269
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Est. fees paid−$211
Open positions10
Markets (closed)789 / 651
History coverage64d ⚠
Avg bet$603
Trades / day37.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 789 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? Yes 74¢ 72¢ $501 $484 −$17 (-3%)
Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $91 $90 −$2 (-2%)
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 89¢ 78¢ $89 $78 −$11 (-12%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $74 $74 +$0 (+1%)
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 68¢ $72 $68 −$4 (-5%)
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 98¢ 98¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House No 50¢ 57¢ $30 $34 +$4 (+15%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 50¢ 42¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-15%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $400B and $600B at market close on IPO day? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 176 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Panathinaikos vs. Olympiacos B.C. Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
CB Murcia vs. Barcelona Jun 17 $89 −$89 -100%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-03-09? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
KK Crvena Zvezda vs. Fenerbahce Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
BC Dubai vs. Anadolu Efes Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol end in a draw Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Real Madrid Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Lakers vs. Clippers Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-14? Jun 17 $465 −$465 -100%
Will Sevilla win on 2025-11-30? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Monaco vs. Nancy Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Lakers vs. Spurs Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano vs. FK Bodø/Glimt end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Spurs vs. Celtics Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2025-12-21? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Amici Pallacanestro Udinese vs. Olimpia Milano Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Udinese Calcio win on 2026-03-07? Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Lakers vs. Clippers Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-23? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
BC Dubai vs. Barcelona Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Spurs Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Sonic Boom vs. Seoul Thunders Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Barcelona vs. Monaco Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-04-10? Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-17? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Warriors vs. Mavericks Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Lakers vs. Suns Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Anadolu Efes vs. Olimpia Milano Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Xinjiang Flying Tigers vs. Ningbo Rockets Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-03-22? Jun 17 $562 −$562 -100%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-02-07? Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Real Madrid vs. Monaco Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-02-24? Jun 17 $260 −$260 -100%
No airdrop in 2025? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Real Madrid Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Pallacanestro Reggiana vs. Virtus Bologna Jun 17 $253 −$253 -100%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-03-15? Jun 17 $96 −$96 -100%
Will Newcastle United win on 2025-09-18? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-11-30? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-01-28? Jun 17 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Valencia CF vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-08? Jun 17 $14 −$33 -231%
Massachusetts Minutemen vs. Miami (OH) RedHawks Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-18? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Burgos vs. Saski Baskonia Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-02-08? Jun 17 $42 −$42 -100%
BC Dubai vs. Real Madrid Jun 17 $56 −$56 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro SELL Emma Navarro 94¢ $57 1h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 88¢ $106 1h
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $90 1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Jessica Pegula 98¢ $10 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 74¢ $17 10h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 74¢ $57 11h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $962 18h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $408 18h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $493 18h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $8 18h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,998 18h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $74 18h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $184 18h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 18h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $8 18h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $605 18h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $250 18h
Royan: Franco Ribero vs Pavel Kotov BUY Pavel Kotov 99¢ $0 21h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo BUY Alex de Minaur 98¢ $102 22h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo BUY Alex de Minaur 98¢ $49 22h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo BUY Alex de Minaur 98¢ $5 22h
Brescia: Danka Kovinic vs Miriam Bulgaru BUY Miriam Bulgaru 98¢ $10 24h
Brescia: Danka Kovinic vs Miriam Bulgaru BUY Miriam Bulgaru 98¢ $147 24h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Elina Svitolina 97¢ $175 24h
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti BUY Darya Astakhova 97¢ $146 28h
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Chloe Paquet BUY Julia Grabher 99¢ $96 29h
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Chloe Paquet BUY Julia Grabher 99¢ $3 29h
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Chloe Paquet BUY Julia Grabher 99¢ $11 29h
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Chloe Paquet BUY Julia Grabher 99¢ $89 29h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 55¢ $54 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $972.77 · official $972.77 (match) · 3500 history records