Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:14:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
9C 0x9ce0…830e sports 913 markets active 0h ago coverage 228d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$214 (+1%) realized +$242 · open −$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate65%591W / 320L
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$81est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$41
7 days−$20
14 days+$25
30 days−$115
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$14
other 3% +$103
crypto 0% −$17
politics 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +2.0% -7.7% 64% 62% -10.5%
≤30d 87 -1.7% -11.1% 63% 55% -13.0%
≤90d 378 -5.2% -14.3% 66% 51% -9.0%
all 911 -2.6% -11.9% 65% 52% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 52% -8.8%
10% -20.3% 38% -17.6%
15% -28.0% 26% -25.5%
20% -35.1% 15% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$13 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$242
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses591 / 320
Est. fees paid−$81
Open positions2
Markets (closed)911 / 913
History coverage228d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 911 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner 9z 62¢ 52¢ $51 $43 −$8 (-15%)
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner TheMongolz 69¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 77 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $39 +$32 +82%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $30 +$9 +31%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $42 −$41 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $73 +$14 +19%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $19 +$4 +21%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $40 −$1 -2%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $7 +$3 +43%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $94 −$49 -52%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $11 −$10 -95%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $58 +$12 +21%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $42 +$11 +26%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $42 −$20 -48%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $30 +$4 +14%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $21 +$8 +38%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $11 +$5 +44%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $78 −$78 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $11 +$18 +170%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $21 −$20 -95%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $11 −$10 -95%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$8 +42%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $10 +$5 +52%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $50 +$9 +18%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $10 +$8 +76%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $5 $0 -6%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $5 $0 -3%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $21 +$7 +32%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $41 +$13 +32%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $92 +$22 +24%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $30 +$5 +16%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $10 +$8 +79%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $3 +$6 +178%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $20 +$6 +29%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $20 +$7 +34%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $30 +$20 +66%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $20 +$6 +28%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $29 +$4 +12%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $58 +$5 +9%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $10 −$4 -39%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $77 +$21 +28%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $5 +$5 +101%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $15 +$6 +38%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $5 +$5 +97%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $38 +$4 +10%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $24 +$14 +57%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $10 +$5 +48%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $80 −$20 -26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 62¢ $52 3m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 67¢ $10 52m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 72¢ $10 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $72 7h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $39 13h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 56¢ $22 19h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 78¢ $10 19h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $15 19h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 75¢ $20 19h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 56¢ $20 19h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta SELL Vitality 100¢ $87 19h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 93¢ $23 20h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner SELL Vitality 99¢ $23 21h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 81¢ $19 21h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 80¢ $50 22h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 100¢ $35 22h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 85¢ $30 22h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 28¢ $4 23h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 66¢ $10 25h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $10 25h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 60¢ $41 26h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 57¢ $41 26h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 69¢ $7 30h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 68¢ $52 31h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 62¢ $11 36h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 79¢ $58 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $53 2d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY B8 57¢ $21 2d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 43¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 74¢ $21 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.27 · official $43.27 (match) · 2090 history records