Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:37:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9cdd…3e97 other 710 markets active 0h ago coverage 35d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 35d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (82 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$55,179 (+25%) realized +$55,330 · open −$151
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate71%484W / 196L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$307per market
Trades / day82.2pace
Fees−$169est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$42,451now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% +$10,126
politics 27% +$2,411
world 25% +$2,331
sports 18% +$22,888
economics 1% +$1,678
tech 0% +$8
culture 0% +$7
finance 0% −$1
weather 0% +$176
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (82 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 304 -24.5% -31.7% 57% 20% -13.5%
≤30d 625 -7.8% -16.6% 70% 24% +1.3%
≤90d 680 -2.7% -12.0% 71% 25% +2.6%
all 680 -2.7% -12.0% 71% 25% +2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover82.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.0% 25% +2.6%
10% ← realistic here -20.4% 14% -7.2%
15% -28.1% 9% -16.2%
20% -35.2% 7% -24.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +16% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$113 vs −$173 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$42,451
Realized+$55,330
Unrealized−$151
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses484 / 196
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$169
Open positions216
Markets (closed)680 / 710
History coverage35d ⚠
Avg bet$307
Trades / day82.2
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 216 History 680 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Enzo Maresca be the next manager of Manchester City FC? Yes 97¢ 99¢ $6,597 $6,710 +$113 (+2%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 63¢ 89¢ $2,321 $3,264 +$943 (+41%)
Will Jeff Hurd be the Republican nominee for CO-03? Yes 97¢ 97¢ $1,696 $1,703 +$6 (+0%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $984 $1,145 +$160 (+16%)
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Yes 63¢ 30¢ $2,448 $1,144 −$1,304 (-53%)
Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 National League MVP Award? Yes 66¢ 84¢ $863 $1,101 +$238 (+28%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 63¢ 84¢ $818 $1,077 +$259 (+32%)
Will Maxx Crosby play for Las Vegas Raiders next? Yes 60¢ 80¢ $666 $879 +$213 (+32%)
Will Jeff Bezos buy the Seattle Seahawks? No 76¢ 94¢ $692 $851 +$159 (+23%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 6¢ 10¢ $487 $816 +$329 (+67%)
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 61¢ 77¢ $638 $801 +$163 (+25%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 78¢ 90¢ $687 $799 +$112 (+16%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 87¢ 90¢ $737 $769 +$32 (+4%)
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? Yes 72¢ 74¢ $678 $702 +$24 (+3%)
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June? Yes 94¢ 98¢ $660 $688 +$28 (+4%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 93¢ 99¢ $626 $663 +$36 (+6%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 62¢ 61¢ $626 $612 −$14 (-2%)
Will Donald Trump visit Turkey in 2026? Yes 85¢ 96¢ $509 $575 +$66 (+13%)
Will Trump meet with Ahmed al-Sharaa in 2026? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $545 $548 +$3 (+1%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 77¢ 86¢ $483 $537 +$54 (+11%)
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final? Yes 85¢ 89¢ $396 $414 +$17 (+4%)
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $306 $361 +$55 (+18%)
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 81¢ 69¢ $413 $351 −$62 (-15%)
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 33¢ 37¢ $305 $342 +$37 (+12%)
Will Kylian Mbappe leave Real Madrid before August 31? No 92¢ 95¢ $328 $338 +$10 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 164 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026? Jun 17 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Baltimore Ravens draft Makai Lemon in the 2026 pro football draft Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by Januar Jun 17 $102 −$212 -208%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
High Point Panthers vs. Wisconsin Badgers Jun 17 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Trump say "Rare earth" or "Mineral" during events with Brazilian Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2025? Jun 17 $1,132 −$1,280 -113%
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 8, 2026 Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will TreVeyon Henderson record the most rushing yards by a rookie runn Jun 17 $204 −$210 -103%
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 22, 2026? Jun 17 $58 +$93 +161%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-17? Jun 17 $117 −$117 -100%
Xabi Alonso out as Real Madrid Manager in 2025? Jun 17 $303 −$369 -122%
Commanders vs. Giants Jun 17 $168 −$168 -100%
Will Macklin Celebrini win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 17 $7 −$141 -2156%
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 6, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Canucks vs. Avalanche Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee in 2025? Jun 17 $394 −$394 -100%
Will Ausar Thompson lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA seas Jun 17 $187 −$187 -100%
Will Trump meet with Putin by March 31, 2026? Jun 17 $86 −$229 -266%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the AFC North? Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-25? Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 5, 2026? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Garett Bolles win the NFL Protector of the Year? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Patriots vs. Ravens Jun 17 $643 −$643 -100%
Thailand x Cambodia ceasefire by December 15? Jun 17 $1,045 −$1,045 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 7, 2026? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Jalen Duren win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player? Jun 17 $235 −$247 -105%
Ukraine election called by March 31, 2026? Jun 17 $70 −$86 -122%
Ukraine election called in 2025? Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Will David Bailey be the third pick in the 2026 NFL draft? Jun 17 $258 −$258 -100%
Miami vs. Ohio State Jun 17 $435 −$435 -100%
UFC 326: Gregory Rodrigues vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Main Car Jun 17 $179 −$179 -100%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Illinois Fighting Illini Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Jun 17 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Dyson Daniels lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA seaso Jun 17 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Carter Bryant win the 2026 NBA dunk contest? Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Patrick Mahomes win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award? Jun 17 $0 −$21 -7457%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump say "Largest inflation" or "Worst inflation" during CNBC: S Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Arizona Wildcats vs. BYU Cougars Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $99 −$99 -100%
Stars vs. Sharks Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by December 31? Jun 17 $642 −$642 -100%
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by March 31? Jun 17 $8 −$327 -4118%
Will Israel strike Iraq by February 28? Jun 17 $86 −$86 -100%
Will Francis Mauigoa be the third pick in the 2026 NFL draft? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-01? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by January 11? Jun 17 $4 +$2 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 99¢ $99 1m
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 99¢ $0 1m
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 99¢ $7 1m
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 99¢ $7 1m
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 1m
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 1m
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 99¢ $38 1m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $346 47m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 75¢ $86 56m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 72¢ $144 1h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $1 1h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $64 1h
Will Donald Trump attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 85¢ $35 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 97¢ $92 1h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $128 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 83¢ $184 1h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $37 1h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $120 1h
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 97¢ $58 1h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 92¢ $542 1h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 87¢ $514 1h
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June? BUY Yes 98¢ $200 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 16¢ $0 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 16¢ $5 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 16¢ $0 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 16¢ $10 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42,450.80 · official $42,449.84 (match) · 3500 history records