Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:03:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
9C 0x9cdd…c92e world 6 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$120 (-34%) realized −$120 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$129
world 47% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-46.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -40.3% -46.0% 40% 20% -44.7%
≤30d 5 -40.3% -46.0% 40% 20% -44.7%
≤90d 5 -40.3% -46.0% 40% 20% -44.7%
all 5 -40.3% -46.0% 40% 20% -44.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.0% 20% -44.7%
10% -51.1% 0% -50.0%
15% -55.9% 0% -54.8%
20% -60.2% 0% -59.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$43 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$120
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage6d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $49 $49 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 3 Jun 16 $35 $0 +0%
Game 2: Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors? Jun 11 $60 −$60 -100%
KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31? Jun 11 $69 −$9 -12%
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor? Jun 10 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 10 $84 +$9 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.14 · official $49.14 (match) · 17 history records