Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:17:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9C 0x9cda…1397 other 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,140 (+2%) realized +$3,071 · open +$1,069
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate65%20W / 11L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7,925per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$115est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$10,969now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,572
7 days+$5,291
14 days−$9,447
30 days−$3,764
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 87% +$986
other 11% +$9,066
sports 2% −$4,413
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +30.2% +17.8% 67% 58% +7.2%
≤30d 23 -6.7% -15.6% 52% 43% -12.1%
≤90d 31 -2.3% -11.6% 65% 45% -7.9%
all 31 -2.3% -11.6% 65% 45% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.6% 45% -7.9%
10% ← realistic here -20.1% 26% -16.7%
15% -27.8% 23% -24.7%
20% -34.9% 16% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$10,018) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -16% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,235 vs −$1,831 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$10,969
Realized+$3,071
Unrealized+$1,069
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses20 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$115
Open positions2
Markets (closed)31 / 33
History coverage74d
Avg bet$7,925
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 86¢ 97¢ $5,000 $5,644 +$644 (+13%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 99¢ $4,900 $5,324 +$424 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $1,019 +$1,672 +164%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $102 −$100 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1,010 +$483 +48%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10,108 +$5,517 +55%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $4,091 −$4,000 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10,018 +$620 +6%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,010 +$461 +46%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1,004 +$159 +16%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $202 +$126 +62%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $102 +$374 +366%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1,016 +$1,066 +105%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $715 −$700 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $14,100 −$14,100 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,006 −$811 -81%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,005 +$213 +21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $4,000 +$1,333 +33%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $80,100 +$4,349 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $16,000 +$2,005 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $16,000 +$513 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $56,368 +$770 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? May 14 $3,000 +$488 +16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 12 $3,000 +$297 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 04 $3,958 +$111 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 28 $12,295 +$2,437 +20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $9,968 +$1,714 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 37¢ $1,019 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $102 20h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,010 2d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $4,091 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $10,108 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 94¢ $10,018 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $1,010 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 86¢ $1,004 5d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $202 6d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 6d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 6d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $71 6d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $32 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,081 8d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $715 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $1,016 9d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $102 9d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 9d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 16¢ $161 9d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 17¢ $33 9d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 81¢ $1,006 9d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 9d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 9d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $4,900 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $5,000 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $100 10d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,218 10d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $1,005 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 18¢ $10,000 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $4,000 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,968.58 · official $10,971.48 (match) · 73 history records