Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T01:34:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9cd1…6fe4 sports 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$29 (-10%) realized −$30 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%5W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$29
other 10% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-32.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -25.6% -32.7% 45% 45% -24.8%
≤30d 11 -25.6% -32.7% 45% 45% -24.8%
≤90d 11 -25.6% -32.7% 45% 45% -24.8%
all 11 -25.6% -32.7% 45% 45% -24.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.7% 45% -24.8%
10% -39.1% 45% -32.0%
15% -45.0% 45% -38.5%
20% -50.4% 36% -44.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 49% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$14 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$117
Realized−$30
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions9
Markets (closed)11 / 20
History coverage5d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1? Over 39¢ 38¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 51¢ 52¢ $14 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 3.5 Corners Under 46¢ 46¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Under 42¢ 52¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+25%)
Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) Team Liquid 41¢ 40¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Team Liquid 32¢ 32¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
France vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Under 58¢ 56¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-3%)
France vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 58¢ 56¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-4%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 56¢ 54¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 29 $19 −$19 -99%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $19 +$11 +60%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Jun 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $10 +$10 +97%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, Jun 27 $24 +$12 +50%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 27 $14 +$7 +52%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 27 $14 −$14 -99%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $14 −$14 -99%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $25 +$15 +60%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $24 −$24 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 32¢ $10 1h
Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) BUY Team Liquid 41¢ $10 1h
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1? BUY Over 39¢ $30 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 51¢ $15 4h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 46¢ $15 4h
Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 42¢ $10 24h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $10 24h
France vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 58¢ $10 24h
France vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 58¢ $10 24h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 60¢ $19 24h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Deep Cross Gaming 16¢ $5 33h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 62¢ $19 2d
Colombia vs. Portugal: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Under 50¢ $10 2d
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 16¢ $10 2d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 52¢ $14 3d
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $14 3d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 65¢ $14 4d
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, BUY Nursulton Ruziboev 66¢ $24 4d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 67¢ $24 5d
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 62¢ $25 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $116.64 · official $116.64 (match) · 25 history records