Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:46:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9cd1…1eb0 sports 106 markets active 1h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 70d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,278 (-6%) realized −$2,517 · open +$239
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate56%55W / 43L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$346per market
Trades / day47.8pace
Fees−$360est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$3,030now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$915
14 days−$894
30 days−$2,956
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$1,999
other 45% −$667
politics 1% +$21
world 1% −$108
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -33.6% -39.9% 36% 21% -34.7%
≤30d 46 -2.1% -11.4% 52% 33% -40.0%
≤90d 98 +2.5% -7.3% 56% 37% -19.3%
all 98 +2.5% -7.3% 56% 37% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.3% 37% -19.3%
10% ← realistic here -16.2% 20% -27.0%
15% -24.3% 14% -34.1%
20% -31.7% 9% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
19.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$122 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$3,030
Realized−$2,517
Unrealized+$239
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses55 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$360
Open positions8
Markets (closed)98 / 106
History coverage70d ⚠
Avg bet$346
Trades / day47.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,097 $1,379 +$282 (+26%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $585 $604 +$20 (+3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $583 $567 −$16 (-3%)
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes $259 $281 +$21 (+8%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $233 $172 −$61 (-26%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $5 +$1 (+32%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $2 −$7 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $78 −$29 -37%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Jun 28 $338 +$12 +4%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $320 −$154 -48%
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Jun 27 $240 −$133 -56%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $300 −$295 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $250 −$35 -14%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $361 +$11 +3%
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $10 −$6 -62%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $18 +$2 +9%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $617 +$73 +12%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $625 −$221 -35%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $95 −$93 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $11 +$2 +14%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $90 +$16 +17%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $22 +$6 +27%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 16 $2 $0 -11%
Will France win the World Cup? Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $111 +$21 +19%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $174 −$1 -1%
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $98 +$22 +23%
Will Victor Wembanyama record a quadruple double this season? Jun 14 $9 +$1 +14%
Roland Garros ATP: Valentin Royer vs Novak Djokovic Jun 14 $125 $0 -0%
Bradley Barcola: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 14 $0 +$2 +694%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 0 - 0 Paris Saint-Germain FC? Jun 14 $33 −$5 -15%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 14 $40 −$9 -23%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Jun 14 $52 +$10 +19%
Roland Garros ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Arthur Gea Jun 14 $194 −$86 -44%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Jun 14 $25 +$3 +12%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Jakub Mensik Jun 14 $1,280 −$1,159 -90%
Roland Garros ATP: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alexander Zverev Jun 14 $188 +$5 +3%
Roland Garros ATP: Nishesh Basavareddy vs Alex Michelsen Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Miomir Kecmanovic vs Fabian Marozsan Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9 +$1 +9%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $1,456 −$1,365 -94%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,231 +$518 +42%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $53 +$12 +22%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $69 +$8 +12%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $54 −$7 -14%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $40 +$16 +40%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $38 +$2 +5%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +3%
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $2 $0 +3%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $3 $0 +0%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Hamad Medjedovic May 27 $1,082 +$15 +1%
Roland Garros ATP: Mariano Navone vs Jakub Mensik May 27 $3,659 −$94 -3%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 27 $705 +$81 +12%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 26 $18 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $100 40m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $13 42m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $113 42m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $111 42m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 46m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 46m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $195 48m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $290 48m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 51m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $9 51m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $47 52m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 52m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 53m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 53m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $12 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $15 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $20 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $23 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $23 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $6 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $17 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $11 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,029.53 · official $3,031.47 (match) · 3500 history records