Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:15:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
9C 0x9cd0…c747 sports 623 markets active 4h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$507 (-3%) realized −$500 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate65%402W / 218L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day14.5pace
Fees−$79est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$13
14 days−$83
30 days−$358
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$395
other 30% −$56
weather 2% −$57
crypto 2% −$87
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -13.8% -22.0% 30% 30% -17.3%
≤30d 260 -13.3% -21.6% 51% 45% -17.1%
≤90d 620 -8.6% -17.3% 65% 48% -13.1%
all 620 -8.6% -17.3% 65% 48% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 48% -13.1%
10% -25.2% 24% -21.4%
15% -32.4% 12% -29.0%
20% -39.1% 10% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$15 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$500
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses402 / 218
Est. fees paid−$79
Open positions3
Markets (closed)620 / 623
History coverage75d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day14.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 620 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 90¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-2%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 144 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$5 +23%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $21 +$6 +26%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 14 $4 +$3 +84%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$15 +291%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $3 +$3 +114%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 13 $4 +$4 +97%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters G Jun 11 $5 +$12 +237%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. KT Wiz Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $5 +$13 +264%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids (BO3) - Esports World Cup South Ame Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 14? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -94%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs PCIFIC (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Ch Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas end in a draw? Jun 10 $25 +$5 +18%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $4 +$4 +105%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $3 +$3 +97%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 10 $3 +$4 +119%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $3 +$4 +129%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Kan Jun 09 $3 −$3 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 09 $3 −$3 -99%
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-7.5) Jun 09 $3 −$3 -99%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-8.5) Jun 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 172.5 Jun 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Colo Jun 09 $4 −$4 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Jun 09 $4 −$4 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Lo Jun 09 $4 +$4 +98%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $3 +$3 +105%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 225.5 Jun 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 224.5 Jun 09 $4 −$4 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 222.5 Jun 09 $4 −$4 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Jun 08 $5 +$5 +92%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $14 +$16 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $7 4h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 11h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 16h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 18¢ $1 17h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 18¢ $1 17h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 19¢ $1 17h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 19¢ $1 17h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 19¢ $1 17h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 19¢ $1 17h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 19¢ $1 17h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 19¢ $1 17h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 19¢ $1 17h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 37¢ $3 18h
Spread: Norway (-3.5) BUY Norway 19¢ $1 21h
Spread: Norway (-3.5) BUY Norway 19¢ $3 21h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 21h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 21h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 21h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.87 · official $18.95 (match) · 1504 history records