Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:55:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
9C 0x9ccd…41b9 sports 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 232d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,409 (-21%) realized −$1,905 · open +$496
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate69%24W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$187per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$85est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$1,638now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$552
7 days−$598
14 days−$508
30 days−$508
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$77
other 26% −$1,429
crypto 3% +$8
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -43.5% -48.9% 33% 0% -27.5%
≤30d 33 +7.2% -3.0% 73% 52% -21.6%
≤90d 33 +7.2% -3.0% 73% 52% -21.6%
all 35 +2.7% -7.1% 69% 49% -42.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 49% -42.4%
10% -16.0% 34% -47.9%
15% -24.1% 20% -52.9%
20% -31.5% 20% -57.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$200 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$1,638
Realized−$1,905
Unrealized+$496
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses24 / 11
Est. fees paid−$85
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage232d
Avg bet$187
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs FURIA (+3.5) Team Falcons 46¢ 66¢ $1,141 $1,638 +$496 (+43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $1,102 +$55 +5%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $1,710 −$607 -36%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $104 −$45 -44%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $45 −$28 -63%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs BetBoom Team (+3.5) Jun 14 $10 +$8 +81%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $147 +$38 +26%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $61 +$6 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 13 $31 −$27 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 13 $16 +$5 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $41 +$8 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 13 $30 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $51 +$17 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$2 -30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $25 +$1 +4%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $10 +$2 +24%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+6.5) Jun 12 $10 +$2 +20%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs BetBoom Team (+3.5) Jun 12 $9 +$7 +76%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $10 +$13 +132%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $40 +$5 +12%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $49 +$2 +3%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $54 +$4 +7%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $19 +$3 +16%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $16 +$16 +97%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $10 +$6 +57%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $12 +$2 +20%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $10 −$2 -17%
Will KT Rolster win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 09 $1,739 −$1,427 -82%
Will Top Esports win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 01 $159 −$59 -37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs FURIA (+3.5) BUY Team Falcons 46¢ $1,160 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $1,157 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 95¢ $1,102 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL FURIA 28¢ $1,102 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 41¢ $1,710 6h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 21¢ $10 6d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner SELL TheMongolz 14¢ $10 6d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 63¢ $46 6d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner SELL TheMongolz 61¢ $46 6d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 61¢ $48 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 24¢ $5 7d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Aurora Gaming 76¢ $5 7d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 77¢ $5 7d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 23¢ $13 7d
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs BetBoom Team (+3.5) SELL Vitality 99¢ $18 7d
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs BetBoom Team (+3.5) BUY Vitality 54¢ $10 7d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Aurora Gaming 53¢ $11 7d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 54¢ $11 7d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 49¢ $10 7d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 99¢ $49 7d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 80¢ $40 7d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 37¢ $67 7d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 17¢ $20 7d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 81¢ $52 7d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 61¢ $40 7d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 57¢ $20 7d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 67¢ $20 7d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 82¢ $84 7d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 64¢ $6 7d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 64¢ $61 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,637.69 · official $1,637.69 (match) · 120 history records