Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:37:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9ccc…e7e8 other 223 markets active 1h ago coverage 57d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 57d only
✗ bot/MM pace (55 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$13,925 (-13%) realized −$14,011 · open +$86
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate35%68W / 125L
Whale WR35%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$468per market
Trades / day54.9pace
Fees−$678est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$13,795now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,833
7 days+$3,715
14 days+$3,151
30 days+$6,446
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$2,486
sports 34% −$2,859
crypto 20% −$6,629
world 1% −$580
finance 0% +$196
tech 0% −$78
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (55 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +33.0% +20.3% 48% 48% +5.1%
≤30d 77 +16.7% +5.6% 40% 36% +5.0%
≤90d 193 -0.1% -9.6% 35% 34% -22.0%
all 193 -0.1% -9.6% 35% 34% -22.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover54.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.6% 34% -22.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.2% 34% -29.5%
15% -26.1% 31% -36.3%
20% -33.4% 28% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 35% (≥$528) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
12.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$461 vs −$351 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$13,795
Realized−$14,011
Unrealized+$86
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses68 / 125
Whale WR (big bets)35%
Est. fees paid−$678
Open positions16
Markets (closed)193 / 223
History coverage57d ⚠
Avg bet$468
Trades / day54.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 193 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $2,569 $2,962 +$394 (+15%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $1,695 $1,882 +$188 (+11%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $1,464 $1,762 +$299 (+20%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $1,621 $1,365 −$256 (-16%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $816 $847 +$31 (+4%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $820 $815 −$5 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $1,120 $685 −$435 (-39%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $873 $595 −$278 (-32%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $377 $575 +$198 (+53%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? No 56¢ 52¢ $560 $525 −$35 (-6%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $500 $505 +$5 (+1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 43¢ 48¢ $430 $485 +$55 (+13%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $300 $295 −$5 (-2%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Yes 27¢ 24¢ $270 $245 −$25 (-9%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $230 $225 −$5 (-2%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $64 $25 −$39 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $5,115 −$232 -4%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $677 +$323 +48%
Spread: Japan (-3.5) Jun 21 $82 +$918 +1116%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $195 +$805 +414%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $397 +$603 +152%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 20 $235 −$235 -100%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $447 −$447 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 20 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $657 +$343 +52%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals Jun 20 $321 −$321 -100%
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals Jun 20 $296 −$296 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $631 −$631 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $302 −$302 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 20 $357 −$357 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $102 +$210 +206%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? AN Jun 20 $303 +$143 +47%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19 Jun 20 $254 +$243 +96%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- Jun 20 $204 +$353 +173%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $567 +$433 +76%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $617 +$383 +62%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $204 +$330 +162%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-1 Jun 19 $203 +$196 +97%
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 18 $407 −$9 -2%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $233 −$233 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $72 −$72 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $557 −$557 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) Jun 18 $141 −$141 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 18 $303 −$303 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 18 $541 −$541 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $765 −$765 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $164 −$164 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $327 −$327 -100%
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $168 −$45 -27%
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $244 −$47 -19%
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $338 −$37 -11%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $203 +$193 +95%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $795 +$205 +26%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? AN Jun 17 $202 +$66 +33%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $102 +$153 +150%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $27 +$23 +86%
ITF Maanshan: Chase Ferguson vs Taiyo Yamanaka Jun 16 $57 +$43 +76%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-0 Jun 16 $101 +$71 +70%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $4,903 +$3,862 +79%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $26 +$12 +46%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? AND Will Paraguay win o Jun 13 $101 +$63 +62%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 09 $134 −$134 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 09 $496 −$496 -100%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 87¢ $596 49m
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 87¢ $61 57m
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 87¢ $15 1h
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 87¢ $12 1h
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 87¢ $15 1h
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 87¢ $4 1h
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 87¢ $4 1h
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 87¢ $3 1h
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 87¢ $4 1h
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 87¢ $16 1h
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 87¢ $1 1h
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 87¢ $14 1h
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 87¢ $14 1h
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 87¢ $881 1h
Spread: Japan (-3.5) BUY Japan 8¢ $82 10h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 19¢ $195 10h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 39¢ $397 10h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $677 10h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 10¢ $103 14h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 23¢ $235 14h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 44¢ $447 14h
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 84¢ $327 14h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 2¢ $108 15h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 9¢ $203 15h
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 93¢ $5 16h
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 92¢ $201 16h
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $240 18h
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $5 18h
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $1 18h
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $4 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13,794.86 · official $13,804.96 (match) · 3500 history records