Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:45:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9cca…efe9 sports 186 markets active 2d ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$322 (+13%) realized +$322 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate49%92W / 94L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day41.6pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$200
14 days+$249
30 days+$249
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$270
other 8% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 -14.9% -23.0% 38% 18% -31.0%
≤30d 186 -6.8% -15.6% 49% 29% -0.7%
≤90d 186 -6.8% -15.6% 49% 29% -0.7%
all 186 -6.8% -15.6% 49% 29% -0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.6% 29% -0.7%
10% ← realistic here -23.7% 24% -10.2%
15% -31.1% 19% -18.9%
20% -37.8% 16% -26.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$7 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$322
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses92 / 94
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions0
Markets (closed)186 / 186
History coverage10d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day41.6
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 186 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $3 $0 +7%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Jun 15 $5 −$1 -13%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 15 $10 −$4 -36%
Nottingham Open: Tatjana Maria vs Janice Tjen Jun 15 $3 $0 -7%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 15 $3 $0 +7%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 14 $3 $0 +2%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Himeno Sakatsume vs Alicia Dudeney Jun 14 $3 $0 +5%
ITF Hurghada: Polina Iatcenko vs Martyna Kubka Jun 14 $3 $0 +2%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Taylah Preston Jun 14 $3 $0 -15%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $5 −$2 -39%
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Jun 14 $1 $0 -17%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 -1%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $25 −$4 -14%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $15 −$3 -17%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $5 −$1 -20%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $56 −$14 -24%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $21 −$11 -55%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $4 $0 +4%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$1 +20%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $20 +$5 +26%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $10 +$15 +143%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 14 $4 $0 +0%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Spread: CD Cobresal (-2.5) Jun 14 $2 $0 -1%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Lanlana Tararudee Jun 13 $5 −$2 -38%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$3 -34%
ITF Hurghada: Polina Iatcenko vs Anastasia Tikhonova Jun 13 $10 −$2 -19%
ITF Hurghada: Martyna Kubka vs Gabriela Andrea Knutson Jun 13 $20 +$3 +15%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 $0 -5%
ITF Wuning: Yujia Huang vs Sara Saito Jun 13 $14 −$3 -18%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$2 -16%
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 12 $10 −$2 -20%
Czechia leading at halftime? Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $14 −$10 -73%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $15 +$11 +74%
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Tucuman: Federico Coria vs Andrea Collarini Jun 11 $10 +$15 +149%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $19 +$1 +7%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Julia Grabher Jun 11 $13 +$11 +87%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $15 +$4 +24%
Bratislava: Maxim Mrva vs Chun-Hsin Tseng Jun 11 $3 $0 +4%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 11 $20 +$1 +3%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Federico Bondioli Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Jun 11 $8 +$11 +132%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 11 $30 −$14 -48%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 11 $8 −$5 -66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito SELL Petra Marcinko 68¢ $4 43h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova BUY Marie Bouzkova 92¢ $3 43h
Nottingham Open: Tatjana Maria vs Janice Tjen SELL Tatjana Maria 92¢ $3 43h
Nottingham Open: Tatjana Maria vs Janice Tjen BUY Tatjana Maria 96¢ $3 43h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL No $0 2d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel BUY Diane Parry 92¢ $3 2d
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Roberto Carballes Baena BUY Jesper de Jong 97¢ $3 2d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Himeno Sakatsume vs Alicia Dudeney BUY Himeno Sakatsume 94¢ $3 2d
ITF Hurghada: Polina Iatcenko vs Martyna Kubka BUY Polina Iatcenko 97¢ $3 2d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Taylah Preston SELL Antonia Ruzic 86¢ $3 2d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Taylah Preston BUY Antonia Ruzic 99¢ $3 2d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 29¢ $3 2d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito BUY Petra Marcinko 75¢ $5 2d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 45¢ $5 2d
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili SELL Lorenzo Sonego $1 2d
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili BUY Lorenzo Sonego $1 2d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa SELL Alycia Parks 18¢ $7 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $5 2d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa BUY Alycia Parks 25¢ $10 3d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 50¢ $14 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 3d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 99¢ $5 3d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 69¢ $4 3d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 83¢ $5 3d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics SELL Colorado Rockies 20¢ $4 3d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 24¢ $5 3d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics SELL Colorado Rockies 23¢ $6 3d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 39¢ $10 3d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics SELL Colorado Rockies 39¢ $4 3d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Tampa Bay Rays 10¢ $4 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 613 history records