Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:30:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9C 0x9cca…5f52 politics 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$8 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%1W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$636per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$618now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 85% −$5
sports 15% −$5
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -5.0% -14.0% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 4 -5.0% -14.0% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 6 -3.3% -12.5% 17% 0% -9.5%
all 12 -13.1% -21.3% 8% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.3% 0% -9.6%
10% -28.9% 0% -18.3%
15% -35.7% 0% -26.2%
20% -42.0% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$618
Realized−$8
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses1 / 11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)12 / 14
History coverage96d
Avg bet$636
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $411 $409 −$2 (-0%)
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $209 $208 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $178 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $180 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $189 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $2 $0 -19%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $1,191 $0 +0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Mar 28 $2,029 +$2 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 24 $3 −$1 -50%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 23 $1,343 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 23 $6 −$1 -20%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 23 $4 −$3 -67%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 23 $1,721 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 23 $1,412 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 55m
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $178 1h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $179 1h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $178 5h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $189 5h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 8h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 14h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $179 14h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 14h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 17h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 23h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 73d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $442 76d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,191 76d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,191 83d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $324 86d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $665 86d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $569 86d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $143 86d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $138 86d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $191 86d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $2,029 90d
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 90d
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 91d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $1,342 91d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $5 91d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 91d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,720 91d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,410 91d
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 95d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $617.50 · official $617.50 (match) · 128 history records