trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | No | 94¢ | 94¢ | $32 | $32 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by | Jun 12 | $35 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 11 | $4 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 10 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? | Jun 10 | $36 | $0 | +0% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 08 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? | Dec 09 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? | Jun 24 | $9 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May? | Jun 02 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? | May 09 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Alibaba have the top AI model on April 30? | May 06 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Walmart buy TikTok? | Apr 19 | $9 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 31 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Hamas enter Israel by Friday? | Mar 19 | $11 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 14 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 13 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump say 'tariff' 5+ times times during the 2025 State of the Un | Mar 06 | $13 | −$2 | -16% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 20% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 5 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 20% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤90d | 5 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 20% | 0% | -9.5% |
| all | 16 | -0.4% | -9.9% | 56% | 0% | -10.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.9% | 0% | -10.2% |
| 10% | -18.5% | 0% | -18.8% |
| 15% | -26.4% | 0% | -26.7% |
| 20% | -33.6% | 0% | -33.9% |