Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:43:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9cc5…8d75 crypto 178 markets active 1h ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$154 (-12%) realized −$154 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate81%145W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$5
14 days−$6
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% −$121
sports 19% −$52
weather 8% +$4
politics 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -30.1% -36.8% 44% 0% -15.0%
≤30d 162 -4.6% -13.7% 86% 7% -11.4%
≤90d 178 -8.3% -17.0% 81% 8% -21.1%
all 178 -8.3% -17.0% 81% 8% -21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 8% -21.1%
10% -24.9% 4% -28.7%
15% -32.2% 3% -35.6%
20% -38.8% 2% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$7 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$154
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses145 / 33
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)178 / 178
History coverage39d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 178 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9PM ET Jun 22 $48 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7PM ET Jun 21 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$2 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$2 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 19 $3 $0 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 19? Jun 18 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 06 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 05 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 05 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 05 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 05 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 05 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 05 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 05 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 05 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 05 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 05 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 04 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 04 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$3 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $7 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 2d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 19? SELL No 71¢ $5 3d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 19? BUY No 74¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 422 history records