Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:44:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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9C 0x9cc1…a2ba crypto 422 markets active 0h ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$444 (-7%) realized −$446 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate33%139W / 281L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day26.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$74
7 days−$231
14 days−$705
30 days−$876
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$988
sports 1% −$28
politics 0% +$126
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-29.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 102 -21.3% -28.8% 35% 33% -29.8%
≤30d 384 -21.5% -29.0% 33% 32% -22.9%
≤90d 420 -21.9% -29.4% 33% 32% -22.7%
all 420 -21.9% -29.4% 33% 32% -22.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.4% 32% -22.7%
10% ← realistic here -36.1% 30% -30.1%
15% -42.3% 28% -36.8%
20% -48.0% 25% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$11 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$446
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses139 / 281
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)420 / 422
History coverage39d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day26.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 420 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Up 0¢ 30¢ $0 $5 +$5 (+0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 182 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 23 $11 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 23 $13 +$10 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 23 $17 −$7 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 23 $33 +$21 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 23 $19 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 23 $21 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 23 $41 −$20 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 23 $9 +$12 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 23 $40 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 23 $24 +$6 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 23 $20 +$12 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 23 $12 +$9 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$3 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 23 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 23 $42 −$9 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 23 $9 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 23 $13 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 23 $7 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 23 $18 +$14 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 23 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 23 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 23 $6 +$6 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 23 $7 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 23 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 23 $6 +$7 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 22 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 22 $13 +$5 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 22 $14 +$5 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 22 $13 +$11 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 22 $6 +$6 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 22 $6 +$5 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 22 $25 −$23 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 22 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? Jun 22 $5 +$63 +1211%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 21 $23 −$21 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 21 $16 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 21 $16 −$12 -76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $13 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $11 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $19 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 12¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $3 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $21 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $10 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $10 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $17 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $38 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.23 · official $11.00 · 1158 history records