Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:33:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

9C 0x9cb7…5d90 crypto 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover

Total PnL −$36 (-3%) realized −$36 · open +$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -49% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip

Net edge-60%after slip

Net WR18%break-even

Win rate27%3W / 8L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$62per market

Trades / day40.0pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit65%portable

Net worth$743now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +18%

net ROI/market (all)-53.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	11	-48.6%	-53.5%	27%	18%	-25.2%
≤30d	11	-48.6%	-53.5%	27%	18%	-25.2%
≤90d	11	-48.6%	-53.5%	27%	18%	-25.2%
all	11	-48.6%	-53.5%	27%	18%	-25.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover40.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-53.5%	18%	-25.2%
10% ← realistic here	-57.9%	18%	-32.4%
15%	-62.0%	0%	-38.9%
20%	-65.7%	0%	-44.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 41% · top 2 76% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

33% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -49% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.21 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$743

Realized−$36

Unrealized+$3

Win rate (resolved)27%

Wins / losses3 / 8

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions6

Markets (closed)11 / 17

History coverage1d

Avg bet$62

Trades / day40.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 6 History 11 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	89¢	88¢	$500	$497	−$3 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	89¢	88¢	$100	$99	−$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	64¢	64¢	$100	$99	−$1 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	58¢	78¢	$20	$27	+$7 (+35%)
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	Yes	29¢	28¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-2%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw?	Yes	25¢	24¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Jun 19	$5	−$4	-69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Jun 19	$11	+$3	+32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Jun 19	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Jun 19	$10	−$10	-96%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$91	+$4	+4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Jun 19	$10	+$2	+22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Jun 19	$11	−$10	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Jun 19	$5	−$5	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Jun 19	$5	−$5	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Jun 19	$37	−$5	-14%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$21	−$2	-11%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	89¢	$100	40m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	58¢	$10	42m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	58¢	$10	42m
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	29¢	$10	42m
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw?	BUY Yes	25¢	$10	43m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	64¢	$101	43m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$301	47m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$100	48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	SELL Up	6¢	$2	53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	BUY Up	16¢	$5	53m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$100	58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	BUY Up	2¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	SELL Up	18¢	$14	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	BUY Up	6¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	BUY Up	19¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	BUY Up	27¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	BUY Up	42¢	$5	1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$95	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$12	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	SELL Down	8¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	BUY Up	41¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	BUY Down	63¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	BUY Up	5¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	BUY Up	20¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	BUY Down	27¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	BUY Down	2¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	BUY Down	1¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	SELL Down	30¢	$32	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	BUY Down	29¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	BUY Down	24¢	$5	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $742.55 · official $742.55 (match) · 43 history records