Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:46:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

9C 0x9cb6…36d5 sports 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$852 (+195%) realized +$855 · open −$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +162% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +137% what you keep after slip

Net edge+137%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$109per market

Trades / day0.4pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 11d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+137.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+143.9%	+120.7%	100%	100%	+120.7%
≤30d	3	+162.0%	+137.1%	67%	67%	+188.1%
≤90d	3	+162.0%	+137.1%	67%	67%	+188.1%
all	3	+162.0%	+137.1%	67%	67%	+188.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+137.1%	67%	+188.1%
10%	+114.4%	67%	+160.5%
15%	+93.7%	67%	+135.4%
20%	+74.7%	67%	+112.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 52% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +218% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +162% · $-wt +218% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$426 vs −$3 · ×165.46 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×330.92 per $1 lost it wins $330.92

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage

Net worth$44

Realized+$855

Unrealized−$3

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage11d

Avg bet$109

Trades / day0.4

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Uruguay to score first vs. Cabo Verde?	No	31¢	29¢	$47	$44	−$3 (-6%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$287	+$413	+144%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Jun 14	$3	−$3	-100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$99	+$439	+442%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Uruguay to score first vs. Cabo Verde?	BUY No	31¢	$48	1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	41¢	$287	3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	4¢	$3	7d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	18¢	$99	11d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.37 · official $44.37 (match) · 7 history records