Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:53:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9cb4…8285 sports 734 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 11d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (224 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$100,700 (+67%) realized +$100,955 · open −$255
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate60%408W / 271L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$204per market
Trades / day223.5pace
Fees−$1,047est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$3,254now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 12d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% +$1,163
other 27% +$4,332
crypto 2% +$9
world 0% +$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (224 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 321 -6.1% -15.0% 49% 43% -13.8%
≤30d 679 +12.4% +1.7% 60% 51% -6.0%
≤90d 679 +12.4% +1.7% 60% 51% -6.0%
all 679 +12.4% +1.7% 60% 51% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover223.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.7% 51% -6.0%
10% ← realistic here -8.0% 43% -15.0%
15% -16.9% 32% -23.2%
20% -25.1% 23% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +29% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$88 vs −$110 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$3,254
Realized+$100,955
Unrealized−$255
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses408 / 271
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$1,047
Open positions63
Markets (closed)679 / 734
History coverage12d ⚠
Avg bet$204
Trades / day223.5
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 63 History 679 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? No 37¢ 36¢ $538 $531 −$7 (-1%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? No 71¢ 68¢ $251 $242 −$9 (-4%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? No 58¢ 57¢ $172 $169 −$2 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? No 77¢ 76¢ $167 $167 −$0 (-0%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? No 87¢ 88¢ $159 $162 +$3 (+2%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Under 29¢ 32¢ $130 $146 +$16 (+12%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Under 26¢ 26¢ $129 $132 +$2 (+2%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Under 16¢ 16¢ $128 $128 +$0 (+0%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 Under 7¢ 12¢ $75 $124 +$49 (+64%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? No 76¢ 76¢ $109 $108 −$1 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? No 50¢ 52¢ $96 $102 +$5 (+5%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? No 74¢ 72¢ $97 $95 −$2 (-2%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? No 86¢ 84¢ $93 $92 −$2 (-2%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 52¢ 62¢ $64 $76 +$12 (+19%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? No 33¢ 36¢ $65 $70 +$5 (+8%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Under 28¢ 28¢ $55 $56 +$1 (+2%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Under 18¢ 20¢ $49 $53 +$3 (+7%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? No 35¢ 34¢ $51 $49 −$2 (-4%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? No 92¢ 100¢ $42 $45 +$4 (+8%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? No 21¢ 20¢ $39 $36 −$3 (-7%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Under 28¢ 22¢ $44 $34 −$10 (-23%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 31¢ 32¢ $33 $33 +$1 (+2%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? No 32¢ 26¢ $40 $32 −$8 (-19%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Tampa Bay Rays 45¢ 38¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-14%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? No 43¢ 42¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Roland Garros WTA: Panna Udvardy vs Viktorija Golubic Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $134 +$106 +79%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $92 −$32 -34%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
ITF Ystad: June Bjork vs Isabel Skoog Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) Jun 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 18 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $37 −$37 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $71 −$71 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Ryo Tabata Jun 18 $28 −$28 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $52 −$21 -41%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $10 +$13 +129%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 18 $27 +$30 +109%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 18 $20 −$4 -22%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 18 $37 +$43 +115%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $12 +$11 +86%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $64 −$22 -34%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Jun 18 $5 +$10 +197%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 18 $10 +$13 +129%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $41 +$55 +134%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $83 +$34 +41%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $14 +$28 +197%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 17 $28 +$37 +129%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) Jun 17 $8 +$14 +172%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $22 +$24 +108%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $48 +$12 +25%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $524 −$212 -40%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $16 +$1 +6%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $270 +$237 +88%
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria Jun 17 $54 −$4 -7%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $53 +$31 +59%
Dublin: Mees Rottgering vs Kyrian Jacquet Jun 17 $52 −$12 -23%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $134 +$42 +32%
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 17 $166 +$149 +90%
Poznan: Petr Brunclik vs Florian Broska Jun 17 $135 +$29 +21%
Armenia vs. Moldova: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 21¢ $8 58m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 22¢ $7 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 92¢ $42 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $27 6h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $49 7h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $27 8h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 11h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 11h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 12h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $8 12h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 24¢ $21 12h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $7 12h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 24¢ $21 13h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $13 13h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $20 13h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 33¢ $19 13h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 24¢ $23 13h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 18¢ $25 14h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 28¢ $22 14h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $16 25h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $1 25h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 25¢ $21 25h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 31¢ $19 25h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 1¢ $0 25h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 1¢ $0 25h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 1¢ $0 25h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 1¢ $0 25h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 1¢ $0 25h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 22¢ $26 25h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 33¢ $21 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,254.32 · official $3,253.35 (match) · 3500 history records