Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:17:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
9C 0x9cb2…a3dc sports 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$154 (+14%) realized +$154 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%11W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34
7 days+$214
14 days+$155
30 days+$156
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$3
other 41% +$151
crypto 4% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +39.2% +25.9% 50% 50% +9.8%
≤30d 16 +29.2% +16.9% 50% 50% +3.7%
≤90d 22 +21.4% +9.8% 50% 50% +2.2%
all 22 +21.4% +9.8% 50% 50% +2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.8% 50% +2.2%
10% -0.7% 41% -7.6%
15% -10.3% 36% -16.5%
20% -19.1% 36% -24.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late +20% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$41 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$154
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses11 / 11
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage88d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $159 +$131 +82%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $29 $0 -1%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 −$69 -69%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $100 −$62 -62%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $100 +$34 +34%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$17 -88%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$27 +134%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$23 +234%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 −$9 -45%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $121 +$122 +101%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $200 −$196 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $40 +$100 +250%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $79 +$141 +179%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $60 −$59 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 29 $5 +$1 +19%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 03 $2 −$2 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Apr 25 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Apr 21 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Apr 21 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Apr 11 $8 +$7 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Mar 24 $22 −$22 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $290 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 54¢ $159 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $29 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 15¢ $31 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $29 2h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL No 19¢ $38 3h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 48¢ $100 3h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $100 3h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $134 36h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $100 36h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? SELL Yes $3 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $33 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 30¢ $11 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $20 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $243 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 49¢ $121 3d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 36¢ $200 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 5d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $30 5d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 100¢ $202 5d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 93¢ $19 5d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 35¢ $79 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $60 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $6 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 21d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend SELL Ninjas in Pyjamas $0 47d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 46 history records