Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:54:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
9C 0x9caf…94dc other 110 markets active 2h ago coverage 438d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$28,551 (-18%) realized −$28,551 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate37%39W / 66L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,426per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$518est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5,931
7 days+$3,431
14 days−$3,763
30 days−$3,871
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$14,679
sports 39% −$10,733
crypto 2% −$462
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +21.7% +10.1% 60% 60% +14.2%
≤30d 37 -4.9% -14.0% 46% 46% -17.8%
≤90d 52 -12.7% -21.0% 42% 42% -13.4%
all 105 -16.2% -24.2% 37% 36% -24.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.2% 36% -24.8%
10% -31.5% 36% -32.0%
15% -38.1% 36% -38.6%
20% -44.2% 33% -44.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$1,989) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -18% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,553 vs −$1,310 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

438d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$28,551
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses39 / 66
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$518
Open positions0
Markets (closed)105 / 110
History coverage438d
Avg bet$1,426
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 105 Trades
no open positions (29 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $1,317 +$1,002 +76%
Switzerland to score first vs. Canada? Jun 24 $508 +$491 +97%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $1,014 +$836 +82%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1,019 +$1,610 +158%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $2,033 +$2,397 +118%
Panama vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $394 −$390 -99%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 23 $512 −$500 -98%
Croatia leading at halftime? Jun 23 $1,522 −$1,500 -99%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $2,319 +$1,984 +86%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $2,546 −$2,500 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $4,678 −$4,569 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $3,039 −$3,000 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1,015 +$1,026 +101%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3,031 −$3,000 -99%
Nico Williams: 1+ goals Jun 15 $764 −$750 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $511 −$500 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $507 −$500 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,248 +$1,118 +90%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $508 +$492 +97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $2,023 +$1,150 +57%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $509 −$500 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2,022 +$1,103 +55%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $761 +$710 +93%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $509 +$773 +152%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $725 −$716 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,687 −$1,666 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $506 −$500 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $508 +$534 +105%
Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals Jun 12 $255 −$250 -98%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $306 +$765 +250%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $877 +$1,386 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,992 +$866 +43%
Will Wales win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $687 −$674 -98%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $308 −$300 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Apr 28 $994 −$958 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Apr 28 $924 +$496 +54%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $3,057 −$3,000 -98%
Arsenal FC vs. Sporting CP: O/U 2.5 Apr 15 $699 −$688 -98%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Apr 15 $2,292 −$2,235 -98%
Arsenal FC leading at halftime? Apr 15 $1,000 −$984 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $1,997 +$3,293 +165%
Will Poland win on 2026-03-31? Apr 14 $2,498 −$2,498 -100%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 11 $4,990 −$4,990 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $5,000 +$3,504 +70%
FC Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 3.5 Apr 08 $1,988 −$1,958 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $4,000 +$5,134 +128%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $890 −$869 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND BUY $46 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $2,319 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $1,317 2h
Switzerland to score first vs. Canada? SELL Yes 100¢ $999 24h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $1,850 24h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,629 24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on BUY 13¢ $1,026 26h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $1,014 26h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 38¢ $1,019 26h
Switzerland to score first vs. Canada? BUY Yes 50¢ $508 26h
Panama vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $394 47h
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 18¢ $512 47h
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $1,522 47h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY 45¢ $2,033 47h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $4,303 47h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $2,319 2d
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $2,546 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $4,678 9d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $3,039 9d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $1,015 10d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $3,031 10d
Nico Williams: 1+ goals BUY Yes 39¢ $764 10d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 27¢ $511 10d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $507 10d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $508 10d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $1,248 10d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $3,173 11d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Over 62¢ $2,023 11d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14 BUY $1,028 11d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14 BUY $257 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $44.66 · 206 history records