Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:59:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
9C 0x9cae…30cc other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 173d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$405 (+37%) realized +$408 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip
Net edge+19%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate100%8W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$121per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$293now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$154
30 days+$386
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% +$386
other 37% −$3
crypto 21% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +82.5% +65.1% 100% 100% +65.6%
≤90d 7 +36.0% +23.1% 100% 43% +38.6%
all 8 +31.6% +19.1% 100% 38% +36.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +19.1% 38% +36.2%
10% +7.7% 38% +23.1%
15% -2.7% 38% +11.2%
20% -12.3% 38% +0.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +53% too few recent
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt +50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

173d coverage
Net worth$293
Realized+$408
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses8 / 0
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage173d
Avg bet$121
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? No 48¢ 48¢ $296 $293 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $166 +$154 +93%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $146 +$94 +65%
Penguins vs. Flyers May 28 $154 +$138 +90%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 10? Apr 22 $223 +$9 +4%
Will MrBeast hit 480 Million subscribers by January 31? Apr 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast hit 500 Million subscribers by January 31? Apr 10 $24 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor dip to $1.25 in January? Apr 10 $25 $0 +0%
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 28? Jan 17 $40 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 48¢ $301 1h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 51¢ $166 9d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 60¢ $146 21d
Penguins vs. Flyers BUY Flyers 52¢ $154 57d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 10? BUY Yes 96¢ $223 69d
Will MrBeast hit 480 Million subscribers by January 31? BUY No 100¢ $7 152d
Will MrBeast hit 500 Million subscribers by January 31? BUY No 100¢ $24 152d
Will Opendoor dip to $1.25 in January? BUY No 100¢ $25 152d
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 28? BUY No 99¢ $40 172d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $293.07 · official $293.07 (match) · 17 history records