Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:19:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score

9C 0x9cad…97c5 crypto 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ bot/MM pace (67 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL −$276 (-41%) realized −$276 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip

Net edge-43%after slip

Net WR24%break-even

Win rate52%11W / 10L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$32per market

Trades / day67.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

uncopyable — bot pace (67 trades/day)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +24%

net ROI/market (all)-32.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	21	-25.7%	-32.8%	52%	24%	-45.4%
≤30d	21	-25.7%	-32.8%	52%	24%	-45.4%
≤90d	21	-25.7%	-32.8%	52%	24%	-45.4%
all	21	-25.7%	-32.8%	52%	24%	-45.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover67.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-32.8%	24%	-45.4%
10% ← realistic here	-39.2%	24%	-50.6%
15%	-45.1%	24%	-55.4%
20%	-50.5%	14%	-59.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 44% · top 2 79% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -40% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

55% wins margin < slip thin win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -26% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -57% → late +2% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$12 vs −$39 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.33 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$276

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)52%

Wins / losses11 / 10

Open positions0

Markets (closed)21 / 21

History coverage1d

Avg bet$32

Trades / day67.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 21 Trades

no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Jun 15	$10	+$4	+40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Jun 15	$108	+$56	+52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET	Jun 15	$21	−$20	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Jun 15	$10	+$4	+41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Jun 15	$26	−$15	-58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Jun 15	$5	$0	+8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Jun 14	$257	−$248	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Jun 14	$63	+$5	+7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Jun 14	$26	+$44	+170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Jun 14	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Jun 14	$11	+$12	+110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Jun 14	$20	−$20	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Jun 14	$56	−$47	-85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Jun 14	$10	+$1	+10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Jun 14	$5	$0	+1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Jun 14	$5	$0	+1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Jun 14	$11	−$11	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Jun 14	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Jun 14	$5	−$5	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Jun 14	$5	$0	+6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Jun 14	$10	−$10	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	SELL Up	79¢	$14	55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	BUY Up	54¢	$5	57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	BUY Up	54¢	$5	58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$164	59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	BUY Down	64¢	$103	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	BUY Down	55¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET	BUY Down	3¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET	BUY Down	20¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET	BUY Down	25¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET	BUY Down	37¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	SELL Up	62¢	$15	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	BUY Up	46¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	BUY Up	37¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	BUY Down	22¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	BUY Down	62¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	BUY Down	61¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	SELL Up	44¢	$11	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	BUY Up	52¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	BUY Up	31¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	SELL Down	97¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	BUY Down	89¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	BUY Up	19¢	$50	20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	BUY Up	34¢	$105	20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	BUY Up	63¢	$103	20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	SELL Up	4¢	$4	20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	BUY Up	8¢	$5	20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	BUY Up	18¢	$5	20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	BUY Up	20¢	$5	20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	SELL Up	30¢	$6	20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	BUY Up	24¢	$5	20h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 78 history records