Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T08:58:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

9C
0x9cac…2d4e
other · 97 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$7 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$6 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses12 / 82
Open positions3
Markets (closed)94 / 97
History coverage368d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%
Chart Positions 3 History 94 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$3
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-12%)
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-6%)
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 31? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $98 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $3 −$1 -19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $194 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $199 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $103 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 31 $209 +$1 +0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $103 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $1 $0 -52%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 27? Feb 28 $105 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 27 $3 $0 -12%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 25 $91 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 22 $1 $0 +4%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 20 $100 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 15 $105 $0 -0%
U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? Feb 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 12 $102 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 6? Feb 07 $101 $0 +0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 05 $105 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 01 $205 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 29 $197 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 27 $205 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 23 $104 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 22 $108 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 20 $202 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on January 16? Jan 17 $104 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? Jan 16 $94 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 15 $201 $0 -0%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by Wednesday? Jan 08 $108 +$1 +1%
U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by December 31? Jan 03 $105 $0 +0%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 01 $1 $0 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Jan 01 $104 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Dec 29 $1 −$1 -76%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 28 $1 $0 -33%
Will Base launch a token in 2025? Dec 28 $103 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 27 $94 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 25 $105 $0 -0%
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 101m Dec 23 $105 +$1 +1%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Dec 20 $97 +$12 +13%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 17 $97 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 11 $97 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 09 $1 $0 -17%
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 05 $57 $0 -0%
Will Sevilla win the 2025–26 La Liga? Dec 05 $1 $0 -25%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 04 $96 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 30 $94 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 29 $162 $0 -0%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 22 $102 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 37% −$6
other 36% +$5
sports 9% −$2
crypto 7% −$1
culture 4% $0
world 3% −$2
economics 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $97 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $98 34h
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 34h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 3d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $101 3d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $101 5d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 6d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $99 6d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $99 7d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 8d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 8d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $103 8d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $103 10d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 10d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 13d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 13d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $102 13d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $102 15d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 15d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 18d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $103 18d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $103 21d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 29d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 95d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -24.0% -31.2% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 10 -27.1% -34.1% 10% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 10 -27.1% -34.1% 10% 0% -9.9%
all 94 -9.4% -18.0% 13% 1% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.0% 1% -9.6%
10% -25.9% 0% -18.2%
15% -33.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -39.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.80 · official $1.80 (match) · 407 history records