Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:53:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
9C 0x9caa…ed9d crypto 1003 markets active 0h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$73 (+1%) realized +$74 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate58%580W / 421L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day13.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$114now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days−$136
14 days−$187
30 days−$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% +$64
other 9% −$51
tech 1% +$4
sports 0% −$7
world 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 -89.8% -90.7% 10% 0% -25.0%
≤30d 562 -10.4% -18.9% 55% 35% -10.7%
≤90d 1001 -2.3% -11.6% 58% 38% -9.5%
all 1001 -2.3% -11.6% 58% 38% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 38% -9.5%
10% -20.1% 38% -18.1%
15% -27.8% 38% -26.0%
20% -34.9% 38% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$114
Realized+$74
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses580 / 421
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1001 / 1003
History coverage84d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day13.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1001 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 29? No 91¢ 90¢ $97 $96 −$2 (-2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 28? No 92¢ 94¢ $18 $19 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 28? Jun 24 $60 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 26? Jun 24 $101 +$5 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 27? Jun 23 $61 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $101 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 4, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 29? BUY No 91¢ $98 6m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 28? SELL No 99¢ $61 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 26? SELL No 99¢ $106 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 28? BUY No 92¢ $18 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 27? SELL No 99¢ $61 29h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 28? BUY No 98¢ $23 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 28? BUY No 97¢ $38 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 27? BUY No 98¢ $61 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 26? BUY No 94¢ $101 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $107 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? BUY No 94¢ $101 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $106 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19? SELL No 99¢ $106 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 19? SELL No 99¢ $106 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 19? BUY No 95¢ $102 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? SELL No 74¢ $78 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? SELL No 78¢ $82 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? SELL No 86¢ $91 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 21? BUY No 95¢ $102 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.47 · official $114.47 (match) · 2151 history records