Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:50:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9ca5…6799 crypto 523 markets active 1h ago coverage 281d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,012 (-5%) realized −$2,012 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate51%268W / 255L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$107
7 days−$107
14 days+$273
30 days−$2,495
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,902
finance 0% −$3
world 0% +$6
culture 0% +$2
sports 0% −$2
economics 0% +$1
politics 0% +$4
other 0% −$3
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -20.4% -28.0% 44% 33% -17.0%
≤30d 214 -9.6% -18.2% 50% 39% -18.3%
≤90d 331 -6.2% -15.2% 52% 42% -15.5%
all 523 -4.3% -13.4% 51% 42% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 42% -15.6%
10% -21.7% 34% -23.7%
15% -29.3% 27% -31.1%
20% -36.2% 21% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$37 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

281d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,012
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses268 / 255
Open positions0
Markets (closed)523 / 523
History coverage281d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 523 Trades
no open positions (56 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 24 $133 −$8 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 24 $145 −$4 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 24 $204 +$58 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 24 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 24 $104 −$88 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 24 $310 +$76 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 24 $104 +$51 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 24 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 24 $205 −$100 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $156 +$165 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $206 +$142 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $201 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $102 +$30 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $308 −$170 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $101 −$53 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $205 +$91 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $203 −$55 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$11 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $130 +$21 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $102 +$20 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $103 +$55 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $100 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $102 +$25 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 14 $103 +$75 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 14 $102 −$23 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $102 +$25 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 31 $101 −$96 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 31 $101 +$11 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 31 $91 +$10 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 31 $104 −$96 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 31 $11 −$6 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 31 $409 −$105 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 31 $104 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 31 $206 −$130 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET May 31 $103 +$81 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 31 $103 −$76 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 31 $205 −$132 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET May 31 $103 +$17 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 31 $102 +$41 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET May 31 $62 −$41 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET May 31 $52 −$21 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 31 $154 +$11 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 31 $52 −$46 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET May 31 $206 −$92 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 31 $52 −$29 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET May 31 $254 −$29 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 30 $52 +$19 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $24 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $101 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $102 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $31 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $134 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $10 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $36 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $105 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $51 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $51 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $121 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $102 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 8¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $168 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $123 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $94 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $107 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $102 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1487 history records