Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:19:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9ca1…13b5 world 107 markets active 0h ago coverage 33d ⚠
BOTnot copyable world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 32d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (103 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$118,991 (+54%) realized +$112,023 · open +$6,968
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate38%46W / 74L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,049per market
Trades / day102.8pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$68,553now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 33d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 88% +$35,713
politics 4% +$214
finance 3% +$265
crypto 3% −$1,163
other 2% +$1,294
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (103 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -31.6% -38.1% 16% 15% -44.8%
≤30d 109 -0.1% -9.6% 38% 30% -16.3%
≤90d 120 +5.7% -4.3% 38% 32% -14.0%
all 120 +5.7% -4.3% 38% 32% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover102.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.3% 32% -14.0%
10% -13.5% 23% -22.2%
15% ← realistic here -21.8% 20% -29.7%
20% -29.5% 19% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$1,789) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +43% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
12.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,259 vs −$1,025 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$68,553
Realized+$112,023
Unrealized+$6,968
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses46 / 74
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Open positions48
Markets (closed)120 / 107
History coverage33d ⚠
Avg bet$2,049
Trades / day102.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 48 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 66¢ 74¢ $8,742 $9,787 +$1,045 (+12%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? No 80¢ 86¢ $6,268 $6,716 +$448 (+7%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 64¢ 99¢ $3,090 $4,793 +$1,703 (+55%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 99¢ $4,397 $4,638 +$241 (+5%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? No 89¢ 99¢ $3,902 $4,359 +$457 (+12%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 66¢ 73¢ $3,812 $4,209 +$397 (+10%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 40¢ 68¢ $2,259 $3,840 +$1,582 (+70%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 14¢ 21¢ $1,830 $2,784 +$955 (+52%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 51¢ 60¢ $2,258 $2,689 +$431 (+19%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 97¢ 98¢ $2,420 $2,445 +$25 (+1%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 97¢ 97¢ $2,430 $2,430 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 86¢ 85¢ $2,370 $2,340 −$30 (-1%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 8¢ 14¢ $1,155 $2,006 +$851 (+74%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? No 68¢ 74¢ $1,700 $1,862 +$162 (+10%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 51¢ 56¢ $1,589 $1,728 +$139 (+9%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 99¢ $1,402 $1,516 +$114 (+8%)
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? No 37¢ 82¢ $590 $1,300 +$710 (+120%)
Trump meets with Putin by December 31? No 63¢ 62¢ $1,260 $1,250 −$10 (-1%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No 19¢ 69¢ $243 $906 +$664 (+273%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 20¢ 52¢ $300 $788 +$488 (+162%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $742 $787 +$46 (+6%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 84¢ 83¢ $756 $750 −$6 (-1%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $978 $725 −$253 (-26%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 30¢ 50¢ $364 $594 +$230 (+63%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 93¢ 98¢ $517 $547 +$30 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 76 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 25 $204 −$204 -100%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Jun 25 $198 −$198 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Jun 25 $760 −$399 -53%
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026? Jun 25 $924 −$924 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Jun 25 $10 −$1,123 -11745%
Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by March 31, 2026? Jun 25 $758 −$767 -101%
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by April 30? Jun 25 $273 −$164 -60%
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Rese Jun 25 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? Jun 25 $474 −$474 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Jun 25 $1,100 −$647 -59%
Ethereum all time high by March 31, 2026? Jun 25 $108 −$119 -111%
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $550 −$550 -100%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 25 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by March 31? Jun 25 $887 −$970 -109%
Will Russia capture Lyman by January 31, 2026? Jun 25 $864 −$864 -100%
Will Russia enter Rizdvianka by March 31, 2026? Jun 25 $1,050 −$1,764 -168%
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? Jun 25 $2,597 −$2,736 -105%
Will Russia enter Myrne by March 31, 2026? Jun 25 $90 −$90 -100%
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by April 30, 2026? Jun 25 $32 −$32 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Jun 25 $15,046 −$14,739 -98%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026? Jun 25 $247 +$5 +2%
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 17? Jun 25 $361 −$310 -86%
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by Ap Jun 25 $1,653 −$805 -49%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? Jun 25 $2 +$23 +1039%
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 31? Jun 25 $7,449 −$8,974 -120%
Will Ukraine re-enter Huliaipole by March 31? Jun 25 $477 −$477 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by April 30? Jun 25 $985 −$1,502 -152%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $354 −$354 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Jun 25 $581 −$312 -54%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Jun 25 $106 −$80 -76%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? Jun 25 $1,407 −$1,357 -96%
Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by January 31? Jun 25 $300 −$300 -100%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April? Jun 25 $57 +$56 +99%
Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by February 28, 2026? Jun 25 $62 −$181 -291%
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026? Jun 25 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 25 $524 −$521 -99%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? Jun 25 $638 −$638 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Jun 25 $12 −$343 -2925%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? Jun 25 $139 −$27 -20%
Will Iran strike Ruwais Refinery by March 31? Jun 25 $500 −$500 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 31, 2026 (ET)? Jun 25 $58 +$209 +360%
US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026? Jun 25 $18 +$73 +408%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? Jun 25 $691 −$696 -101%
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026? Jun 25 $330 −$330 -100%
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by February 28? Jun 25 $134 −$250 -187%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? Jun 25 $116 +$58 +50%
Will Ukraine qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $88 −$88 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026? Jun 25 $290 −$121 -42%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? Jun 25 $80 +$92 +114%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in Ap Jun 25 $279 −$862 -309%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31? BUY No 87¢ $19 16m
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31? BUY No 87¢ $88 18m
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 20m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 52¢ $372 39m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 52¢ $577 43m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 9¢ $225 46m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $1,035 58m
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? BUY No 36¢ $36 1h
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31? BUY No 87¢ $2 1h
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31? BUY No 87¢ $17 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 84¢ $123 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 84¢ $633 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 44¢ $36 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 44¢ $1 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 44¢ $1 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 44¢ $1 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 44¢ $1 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 44¢ $403 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 61¢ $2,360 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 89¢ $1,335 2h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? BUY No 17¢ $0 3h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $2,430 3h
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in BUY No 79¢ $21 3h
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31? BUY No 87¢ $39 3h
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 3h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 7¢ $41 4h
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? BUY No 44¢ $8 4h
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? BUY No 36¢ $3 5h
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? BUY No 44¢ $13 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68,553.46 · official $68,555.12 (match) · 3500 history records