Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:58:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9c9b…7349 sports 1290 markets active 2h ago coverage 76d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 75d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,095 (-5%) realized −$5,831 · open −$264
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate55%701W / 569L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day27.2pace
Fees−$684est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$1,766now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$642
7 days−$1,819
14 days−$1,657
30 days−$3,101
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$6,882
other 1% +$3
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 +16.1% +5.1% 59% 59% -36.6%
≤30d 299 -0.8% -10.3% 49% 48% -19.0%
≤90d 1270 -6.7% -15.6% 55% 50% -14.8%
all 1270 -6.7% -15.6% 55% 50% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.6% 50% -14.8%
10% ← realistic here -23.7% 29% -22.9%
15% -31.0% 20% -30.4%
20% -37.8% 13% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$38 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$1,766
Realized−$5,831
Unrealized−$264
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses701 / 569
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$684
Open positions20
Markets (closed)1270 / 1290
History coverage76d ⚠
Avg bet$89
Trades / day27.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 1270 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 74¢ 72¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 60¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $100 $91 −$9 (-9%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Over 52¢ 52¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-1%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Over 47¢ 48¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $7 +$4 (+142%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 Over 66¢ 6¢ $50 $5 −$45 (-90%)
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+25%)
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-19%)
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-23%)
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-38%)
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-38%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? Yes 19¢ 8¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-57%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Over 61¢ 0¢ $160 $1 −$159 (-99%)
Will Hunter Greene strike out the most batters during the 2026 MLB regular season? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-91%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 37¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Over 41¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: Croatia 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $20 +$45 +218%
England vs. Croatia: England 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $20 +$18 +87%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $21 +$24 +111%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $21 +$19 +91%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $21 +$26 +120%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $21 −$21 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $81 +$30 +37%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $81 +$68 +84%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $61 +$132 +215%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $41 +$74 +182%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $61 −$60 -98%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $101 +$85 +84%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $50 +$18 +37%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $20 +$39 +190%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
France vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 +$33 +327%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 +$39 +190%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $41 +$32 +79%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $50 +$16 +32%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $41 +$65 +158%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $61 +$50 +83%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $50 +$15 +31%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $20 +$11 +56%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$25 +250%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 +$10 +97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Corners Jun 14 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 204.5 Jun 14 $202 −$202 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 202.5 Jun 14 $503 −$503 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 203.5 Jun 14 $503 −$503 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 209.5 Jun 14 $202 −$202 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 Jun 14 $511 −$511 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 205.5 Jun 14 $504 −$504 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $10 +$6 +57%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $6 +$4 +60%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $10 +$6 +55%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $50 +$7 +13%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $101 +$31 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $81 1h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 31¢ $20 6h
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 37¢ $20 6h
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $51 8h
England vs. Croatia: England 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 53¢ $20 8h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 47¢ $20 8h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $20 8h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $20 8h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $20 8h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $20 8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 BUY Over 45¢ $20 8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $20 8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 BUY Over 44¢ $1 10h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $81 10h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $1 10h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $1 10h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $81 10h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $1 10h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 10h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 35¢ $20 23h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 31¢ $20 23h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $81 23h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $20 23h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 24h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $101 24h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 24h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 24h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $20 24h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 32¢ $20 24h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $20 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,766.50 · official $1,766.50 (match) · 3468 history records