Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:09:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
9C 0x9c9b…7272 sports 866 markets active 7h ago coverage 41d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$309 (-2%) realized −$352 · open +$43
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate53%458W / 402L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day39.4pace
Fees−$129est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$92now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$38
7 days−$111
14 days−$300
30 days−$581
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$672
other 15% +$222
world 4% +$16
crypto 2% −$148
politics 1% −$54
tech 0% −$15
finance 0% −$1
culture 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 106 -4.1% -13.2% 45% 44% -15.2%
≤30d 614 -4.8% -13.8% 52% 50% -15.2%
≤90d 860 -3.8% -13.0% 53% 51% -14.6%
all 860 -3.8% -13.0% 53% 51% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.0% 51% -14.6%
10% ← realistic here -21.3% 47% -22.7%
15% -28.9% 40% -30.2%
20% -35.9% 32% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$11 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$92
Realized−$352
Unrealized+$43
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses458 / 402
Est. fees paid−$129
Open positions6
Markets (closed)860 / 866
History coverage41d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day39.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 860 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
MLB: Scorigami in 2026? Yes 8¢ 45¢ $10 $54 +$44 (+442%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 59¢ 55¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-8%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) 9z 55¢ 54¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+88%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$20 +40%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $30 +$17 +56%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$21 +21%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $30 +$19 +61%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $3 +$2 +58%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$44 +43%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 −$6 -58%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $50 −$36 -72%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $15 +$6 +40%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $35 +$22 +63%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $10 −$1 -6%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $2 $0 -2%
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $10 −$3 -27%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 15 $2 $0 +24%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $2 $0 -7%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +89%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$23 +223%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 171.5 Jun 14 $10 +$10 +99%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -85%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $15 +$7 +46%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$12 +227%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 14 $5 $0 -6%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 14 $1 $0 -0%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $55 −$55 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $15 −$4 -24%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $10 +$9 +93%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $15 +$24 +157%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $25 +$13 +50%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $20 −$18 -87%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 −$8 -40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 71¢ $15 6h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 6h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 55¢ $5 6h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 54¢ $5 8h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 64¢ $20 8h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 9h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 97¢ $47 9h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $122 9h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 10h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $49 10h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 11h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $30 11h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $145 12h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 24¢ $4 12h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 62¢ $3 15h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 18h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 18h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 18h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 61¢ $15 19h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $15 19h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $15 19h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $15 19h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $10 19h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 19h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 33h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $12 33h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 36h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $5 36h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $35 36h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $47 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.60 · official $92.91 · 2028 history records