Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:22:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
9C 0x9c99…ab0b crypto 1067 markets active 1h ago coverage 29d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 28d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (114 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$467 (-4%) realized −$467 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate53%702W / 616L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day114.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 29d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$666
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (114 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-32.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 469 -54.1% -58.5% 29% 27% -74.7%
≤30d 1318 -25.1% -32.3% 53% 42% -36.3%
≤90d 1318 -25.1% -32.3% 53% 42% -36.3%
all 1318 -25.1% -32.3% 53% 42% -36.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover114.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -32.3% 42% -36.3%
10% ← realistic here -38.7% 26% -42.4%
15% -44.7% 16% -48.0%
20% -50.1% 10% -53.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$10 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$467
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses702 / 616
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1318 / 1067
History coverage29d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day114.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1318 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $77 −$77 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$8 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $14 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $12 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 19¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Down 19¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records