Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:18:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9c99…3100 world 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 527d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate33%16W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$6
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% +$1
world 34% +$5
other 19% −$9
sports 2% +$1
economics 1% +$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +2.9% -6.9% 50% 25% -7.3%
≤30d 14 +1.5% -8.1% 29% 14% -8.4%
≤90d 31 +0.3% -9.3% 29% 6% -9.4%
all 48 -2.5% -11.7% 33% 10% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 10% -9.6%
10% -20.2% 4% -18.2%
15% -27.9% 2% -26.1%
20% -35.0% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

527d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses16 / 32
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)48 / 50
History coverage527d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $32 $33 +$1 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $12 +$2 +12%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $2 $0 -3%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $70 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $40 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $35 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $38 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $16 −$1 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $27 +$5 +19%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $67 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $32 $0 -2%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $26 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $35 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $4 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 24 $59 −$1 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 22 $113 +$1 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 19 $39 −$2 -4%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 18 $58 −$2 -3%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $118 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $314 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $68 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 07 $13 +$1 +8%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 06 $15 −$1 -7%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 06 $2 $0 -13%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $285 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 04 $285 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 03 $314 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 03 $19 +$1 +7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 18 $6 $0 +6%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Lee Jun-seok not endorse any candidate? Jun 04 $1 $0 -20%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 02 $1 $0 -20%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? Jun 01 $3 +$1 +15%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? May 30 $6 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 27 $5 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? May 26 $6 −$1 -23%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship May 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? May 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 10% or May 20 $6 +$2 +24%
UT Martin vs. SIU-Edwardsville Mar 03 $3 +$3 +96%
Will the match between Union St.-Gilloise and Ajax Amsterdam end in a Mar 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Mungo vs. MINH Feb 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? Jan 25 $16 +$1 +4%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 5-10%? Jan 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump appeal his hush money conviction? Jan 24 $12 −$1 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $32 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 18¢ $9 8h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 18¢ $4 8h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 16¢ $8 10h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 16¢ $4 10h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 16h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 18h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $35 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $35 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $38 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $8 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $26 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $35 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $35 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $35 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $12 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $26 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $38 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $15 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 18¢ $5 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 18¢ $8 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 18¢ $2 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 44¢ $21 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 44¢ $10 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 37¢ $17 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.77 · official $32.77 (match) · 173 history records