Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:13:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
9C 0x9c99…b13a crypto 63 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$204 (-10%) realized −$203 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%27W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$210
7 days+$245
14 days+$245
30 days+$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% +$168
other 28% −$277
sports 19% +$177
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -0.2% -9.7% 44% 44% +5.0%
≤30d 62 -1.8% -11.2% 44% 44% +4.5%
≤90d 62 -1.8% -11.2% 44% 44% +4.5%
all 62 -1.8% -11.2% 44% 44% +4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 44% +4.5%
10% -19.7% 42% -5.5%
15% -27.4% 42% -14.6%
20% -34.5% 39% -23.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$23 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$203
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses27 / 35
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)62 / 63
History coverage18d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: England (-1.5) England 60¢ 58¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$25 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$31 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$14 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $42 −$27 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$46 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$52 +248%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $49 +$79 +161%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$4 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $104 +$134 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $52 +$69 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $104 −$66 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $42 −$32 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $13 +$5 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$7 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $17 +$16 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$16 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$15 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$12 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$43 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$11 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$16 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$8 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$3 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$7 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 60¢ $51 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $46 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $21 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $21 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $21 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 13¢ $6 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $21 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 14¢ $9 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $42 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $21 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $21 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $129 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $20 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $8 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $21 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $4 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $8 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $121 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Down 17¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 9¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $31 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.75 · official $42.50 · 159 history records