Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:09:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

9C
0x9c98…f4f4
world · 76 markets active 4d ago
0.0score
−$3,369 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3,741 · open +$431
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$57,787
Realized−$3,741
Unrealized+$431
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses49 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)70 / 76
History coverage140d
Avg bet$7,145
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%
Chart Positions 6 History 70 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$9,107
30 days+$7,621
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 74¢ 80¢ $29,367 $31,853 +$2,487 (+8%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 92¢ 94¢ $9,837 $10,062 +$225 (+2%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? No 95¢ 98¢ $7,695 $7,922 +$227 (+3%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 72¢ 64¢ $5,514 $4,838 −$675 (-12%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? No 56¢ 32¢ $4,464 $2,611 −$1,853 (-42%)
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Yes 96¢ 100¢ $479 $500 +$21 (+4%)
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? No 41¢ 0¢ $1,410 $0 −$1,410 (-100%)
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? No 75¢ 0¢ $7,150 $0 −$7,150 (-100%)
U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by June 30, 2026? No 47¢ 0¢ $193 $0 −$193 (-100%)
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? No 52¢ 0¢ $1,459 $0 −$1,459 (-100%)
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? No 78¢ 0¢ $9,498 $0 −$9,498 (-100%)
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? No 75¢ 0¢ $7,462 $0 −$7,462 (-100%)
EdgeX FDV above $400M one day after launch? No 43¢ 0¢ $3,500 $0 −$3,500 (-100%)
Starmer out by February 28, 2026? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $1,318 $0 −$1,318 (-100%)
U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by March 31, 2026? No 57¢ 0¢ $1,490 $0 −$1,490 (-100%)
EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 60¢ 0¢ $9,700 $0 −$9,700 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $2,750 +$239 +9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $30,443 +$5,157 +17%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2,705 +$295 +11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $10,400 +$2,360 +23%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 31 $5,169 +$457 +9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 30 $7,473 +$599 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 29 $7,000 +$500 +7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 28 $10,536 +$924 +9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 27 $4,817 +$657 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $4,809 +$307 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 26 $4,534 +$233 +5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $24,000 −$4,241 -18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $800 +$135 +17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? May 10 $780 +$15 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 06 $5,000 −$159 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 06 $10,000 −$13 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? May 03 $12,086 +$1,224 +10%
Will Kelp DAO socialize the losses? May 01 $3,960 +$1,137 +29%
Iran leadership change by April 30? May 01 $13,117 +$573 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? May 01 $18,050 +$5,937 +33%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? May 01 $6,175 −$2,164 -35%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 29 $14,261 +$306 +2%
Will the ECB announce no change at the April 2026 meeting? Apr 22 $3,988 −$28 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 16 $7,435 +$547 +7%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 02 $7,462 −$7,462 -100%
Iran leadership change by March 31? Apr 02 $3,754 +$326 +9%
EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 02 $11,837 +$1,113 +9%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 02 $34,085 +$7,913 +23%
EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 31 $19,521 −$9,700 -50%
EdgeX FDV above $400M one day after launch? Mar 31 $3,500 −$3,500 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 31 $10,560 +$1,368 +13%
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? Mar 31 $915 +$56 +6%
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 25 $651 +$49 +8%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 24 $11,368 +$2,944 +26%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? Mar 24 $1,563 +$20 +1%
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? Mar 23 $899 +$60 +7%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 15 $6,398 +$1,638 +26%
US forces enter Iran by March 7? Mar 08 $12,961 +$1,011 +8%
Will Tran Luu Quang be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? Mar 07 $1,074 −$525 -49%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Mar 07 $2,471 +$70 +3%
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch? Mar 07 $6,775 +$1,234 +18%
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 05 $5,926 −$2,833 -48%
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? Mar 05 $736 −$368 -50%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $1,800 −$1,657 -92%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 20 $7,150 −$7,150 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 20 $1,410 −$1,410 -100%
U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by March 31, 2026? Feb 20 $1,490 −$1,490 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Feb 20 $9,498 −$9,498 -100%
Will the US strike Somalia next? Feb 20 $288 +$43 +15%
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? Feb 19 $1,459 −$1,459 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 67% −$1,308
other 29% −$2,735
politics 2% +$190
tech 2% +$248
finance 0% +$295
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 85¢ $638 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 92¢ $9,200 4d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $208 6d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $14 6d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY No 95¢ $7,710 6d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $257 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 56¢ $2,643 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 55¢ $1,821 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 79¢ $5,530 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 100¢ $6,154 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $2,000 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $3,514 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 76¢ $10,880 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 72¢ $35 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 72¢ $1 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 72¢ $1 11d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? BUY No 92¢ $1,327 11d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? BUY No 92¢ $11 11d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? BUY No 92¢ $31 11d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? BUY No 92¢ $207 11d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? BUY No 92¢ $207 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 72¢ $39 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 72¢ $41 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 72¢ $36 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 72¢ $5,587 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 100¢ $10,104 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 72¢ $2,160 11d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? BUY No 92¢ $57 11d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? BUY No 92¢ $910 11d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $1,504 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 13 +8.9% -1.4% 92% 38% -3.6%
≤90d 37 -0.2% -9.7% 78% 30% -6.7%
all 70 -10.4% -19.0% 70% 29% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.0% 29% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -26.7% 16% -18.8%
15% -33.8% 1% -26.7%
20% -40.3% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57,787.00 · official $57,787.00 (match) · 659 history records