Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:56:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

9C
0x9c98…c729
crypto · 38 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$67 -14%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1 · open −$68
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized−$68
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses13 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage18d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 1 History 37 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$41
7 days+$41
14 days+$41
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 44¢ 0¢ $68 $0 −$68 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 27, 2026? No 6¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026? No 8¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 27? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Up 72¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" or "Dumocrat" or "Dumacrat" this week? No 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on May 27? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump dance on May 31, 2026? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 26, 2026? No 7¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Up 7¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on May 27? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Up 68¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$22 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$24 +122%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$10 +48%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$15 +72%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$30 +148%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $20 −$19 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $20 −$19 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $20 −$19 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 27 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 27 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET May 26 $2 −$2 -93%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 27? May 26 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on May 27? May 26 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on May 27? May 26 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 26 $6 +$8 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 26 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 26 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 26 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 26 $3 +$2 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 26 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 26 $5 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 26 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 26 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Donald Trump dance on May 31, 2026? May 26 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" or "Dumocrat" or "Dumacrat" this week? May 26 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 27, 2026? May 26 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026? May 26 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 26, 2026? May 26 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 26 $45 −$24 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET May 26 $6 −$3 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET May 26 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 26 $25 +$15 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 26 $35 −$14 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET May 26 $20 +$16 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 26 $18 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET May 26 $2 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 77% +$6
other 19% −$53
politics 2% −$10
weather 2% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $50 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $20 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $20 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $20 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $20 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $20 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $20 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 44¢ $20 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 44¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $3 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $2 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $3 16d
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 27? BUY Yes 34¢ $4 16d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on May 27? BUY Yes 41¢ $3 16d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on May 27? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $2 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $6 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $3 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $3 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-42.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +24.6% +12.7% 62% 62% +14.1%
≤30d 37 -35.9% -42.0% 35% 30% -9.3%
≤90d 37 -35.9% -42.0% 35% 30% -9.3%
all 37 -35.9% -42.0% 35% 30% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.0% 30% -9.3%
10% -47.6% 24% -17.9%
15% -52.7% 24% -25.9%
20% -57.3% 22% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.08 · official $0.08 (match) · 64 history records