Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:01:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
9C 0x9c97…269c crypto 59 markets active 2h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,781 (-22%) realized −$1,742 · open −$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate43%24W / 32L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$139per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$72
7 days+$72
14 days+$72
30 days+$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 59% −$1,115
other 34% −$750
sports 4% −$202
politics 1% +$30
world 1% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-31.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -15.5% -23.6% 50% 50% -0.3%
≤30d 18 -15.5% -23.6% 50% 50% -0.3%
≤90d 27 -33.4% -39.8% 41% 41% -57.4%
all 56 -24.5% -31.7% 43% 41% -33.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.7% 41% -33.2%
10% -38.3% 39% -39.6%
15% -44.2% 32% -45.4%
20% -49.7% 23% -50.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -53% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$110 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized−$1,742
Unrealized−$39
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses24 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)56 / 59
History coverage142d
Avg bet$139
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 69¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? No 12¢ 0¢ $25 $1 −$24 (-98%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$17 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$24 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$15 +60%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$48 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$31 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$23 +90%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$50 +50%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $41 −$40 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 20 $128 +$74 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $201 −$199 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Apr 08 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Apr 08 $10 −$9 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Apr 07 $199 +$57 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Apr 07 $134 +$65 +48%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $911 −$893 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Apr 07 $390 −$371 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Apr 07 $10 −$9 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Apr 07 $60 −$58 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Feb 03 $60 −$59 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Feb 03 $27 +$33 +119%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of February? Feb 03 $100 −$77 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Feb 03 $970 −$967 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Feb 03 $58 −$58 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Feb 03 $701 +$44 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Feb 03 $100 −$99 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Feb 03 $100 +$96 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Feb 03 $28 −$28 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Feb 03 $915 +$123 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Feb 03 $100 +$72 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Feb 03 $35 +$12 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Feb 03 $22 −$22 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Feb 03 $10 −$9 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Feb 02 $215 −$115 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Feb 02 $100 +$63 +63%
Pelicans vs. Hornets Feb 02 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Udinese Calcio vs. AS Roma end in a draw? Feb 02 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Al Riyadh Saudi Club vs. Al Nassr Saudi Club end in a draw? Feb 02 $20 −$12 -58%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-02-01? Feb 01 $700 +$237 +34%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-02-01? Feb 01 $60 −$60 -100%
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) Feb 01 $119 −$20 -17%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-31? Jan 31 $400 +$133 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 12¢ $26 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $43 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $49 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 8h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $15 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $41 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 8h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $36 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $26 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 17h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $151 18h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $41 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $202 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $103 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $26 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 26h
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? BUY Yes 65¢ $201 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $42 74d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.44 · official $101.45 (match) · 99 history records