Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:01:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9c97…874a other 289 markets active 1h ago coverage 417d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$112 (-1%) realized −$162 · open +$50
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate30%83W / 192L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$205now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$40
14 days−$40
30 days+$120
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% −$402
sports 29% +$169
crypto 21% −$100
politics 9% +$148
economics 3% +$102
world 1% −$44
tech 1% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -44.6% -49.9% 10% 10% -37.1%
≤30d 33 -36.9% -43.0% 15% 15% +23.3%
≤90d 52 -37.4% -43.3% 21% 17% -8.3%
all 275 -12.5% -20.8% 30% 29% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.8% 29% -11.4%
10% -28.4% 28% -19.9%
15% -35.3% 25% -27.6%
20% -41.7% 24% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$18 · ×2.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

417d coverage
Net worth$205
Realized−$162
Unrealized+$50
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses83 / 192
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions12
Markets (closed)275 / 289
History coverage417d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 275 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $72 $108 +$36 (+50%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $32 $37 +$5 (+15%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $11 $16 +$5 (+47%)
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $8 $12 +$4 (+55%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+8%)
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+6%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+5%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 2 Panama? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-7%)
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-8%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-10%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 1 Colombia? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 156 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$9 +42%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 2 Algeria? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Algeria? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $4 +$15 +363%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Haiti 2 - 1 Scotland? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 2 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $4 +$41 +1011%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 South Africa? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 South Africa? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 2 Czechia? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $96 +$80 +83%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $101 +$80 +79%
Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 1.5 May 09 $14 −$14 -100%
Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 2.5 May 09 $48 −$48 -100%
Exact Score: Liverpool FC 2 - 2 Chelsea FC? May 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $67 −$66 -99%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $29 +$65 +223%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? May 03 $21 −$21 -98%
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 1 - 3 Fulham FC? May 02 $2 −$2 -97%
Brentford FC vs. West Ham United FC: O/U 2.5 May 02 $22 +$27 +122%
Spread: Brentford FC (-1.5) May 02 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $29 +$2 +5%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-01? May 02 $36 +$14 +40%
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Apr 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $14 +$26 +185%
Will Norwich City FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bristol City FC vs. Norwich City FC end in a draw? Apr 18 $8 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 45m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 47m
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 51m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 52m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 55m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 57m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Jordan 90¢ $29 57m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AN BUY 12¢ $10 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 63¢ $3 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 63¢ $17 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 22¢ $10 21h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 21h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 21h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 21h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 21h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 21h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 21h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 21h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 21h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 21h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 21h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 21h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 21h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 21h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $205.00 · official $215.00 · 711 history records