Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:36:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9c96…5099 other 710 markets active 1h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$704 (+4%) realized +$703 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%291W / 415L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day18.3pace
Fees−$125est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$45
7 days+$262
14 days+$262
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$18
sports 36% +$397
crypto 10% −$43
world 1% −$32
weather 1% −$22
politics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +27.7% +15.6% 50% 50% +2.7%
≤30d 112 -1.1% -10.5% 41% 41% -9.7%
≤90d 706 -4.4% -13.5% 41% 38% -7.9%
all 706 -4.4% -13.5% 41% 38% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 38% -7.9%
10% -21.8% 35% -16.7%
15% -29.3% 32% -24.8%
20% -36.3% 27% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$13 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$703
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses291 / 415
Est. fees paid−$125
Open positions1
Markets (closed)706 / 710
History coverage87d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day18.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 706 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? No 59¢ 60¢ $32 $33 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $25 −$18 -71%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$46 +46%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $25 +$24 +93%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $15 +$19 +124%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $15 +$28 +180%
Michael Olise: 3+ shots Jun 16 $8 +$9 +109%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 16 $51 −$3 -6%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $41 −$4 -10%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $36 −$29 -80%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $126 −$4 -4%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $39 +$54 +140%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $23 +$21 +88%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 $0 -17%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $81 −$24 -30%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $9 $0 -4%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $35 −$10 -28%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $105 +$58 +56%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $30 +$24 +79%
Roland Garros ATP: Tallon Griekspoor vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $49 −$49 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $39 −$25 -64%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $61 −$61 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $20 +$13 +68%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $61 +$57 +94%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $25 −$2 -6%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$45 +90%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $375 −$319 -85%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 +$20 +129%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $183 +$197 +107%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 +$25 +244%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $124 +$137 +110%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $21 +$52 +246%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $11 +$10 +93%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $46 +$43 +93%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $5 +$6 +123%
Roland Garros WTA: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Leolia Jeanjean May 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 23? May 26 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 3 Winner May 25 $5 +$2 +48%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoff May 25 $15 +$5 +36%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 25 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 25 $25 +$33 +129%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $56 +$69 +123%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals May 24 $5 +$6 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 59¢ $33 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 69¢ $25 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $7 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $25 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? SELL Yes 42¢ $28 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 10h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $25 10h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 35¢ $15 10h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 41¢ $48 10h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 42¢ $51 10h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 44¢ $15 10h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 33¢ $22 10h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 36¢ $25 11h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 3¢ $7 11h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 12h
Michael Olise: 3+ shots BUY No 47¢ $8 12h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 12h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 39¢ $14 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 65¢ $122 12h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $15 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $126 12h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 43¢ $31 14h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $39 34h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $32 34h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 34h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 34h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 24¢ $22 34h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 36¢ $25 34h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $71 35h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.81 · official $32.81 (match) · 2059 history records