trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 1 | -39.7% | -45.5% | 0% | 0% | -45.5% |
| ≤90d | 21 | -54.1% | -58.4% | 24% | 10% | -54.1% |
| all | 21 | -54.1% | -58.4% | 24% | 10% | -54.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -58.4% | 10% | -54.1% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -62.4% | 5% | -58.5% |
| 15% | -66.0% | 5% | -62.5% |
| 20% | -69.4% | 5% | -66.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Yes | 8¢ | 6¢ | $13,624 | $10,185 | −$3,439 (-25%) |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | 24¢ | 12¢ | $6,805 | $3,474 | −$3,332 (-49%) |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 14¢ | 16¢ | $163 | $187 | +$23 (+14%) |
| Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 6¢ | 3¢ | $102 | $50 | −$52 (-51%) |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Yes | 14¢ | 8¢ | $10 | $6 | −$4 (-43%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | May 31 | $7,096 | −$2,819 | -40% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | May 10 | $3,545 | +$134 | +4% |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | May 09 | $1,036 | −$76 | -7% |
| Will Iran strike Turkey by April 30, 2026? | May 06 | $18 | +$1 | +5% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? | May 06 | $330 | +$23 | +7% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | Apr 28 | $9,058 | −$1,947 | -22% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? | Apr 16 | $370 | −$230 | -62% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? | Apr 16 | $428 | −$195 | -46% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? | Apr 15 | $53 | −$19 | -36% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? | Apr 15 | $96 | −$36 | -38% |
| Israel military action against Iranian Power Plant by April 30? | Apr 09 | $157 | +$126 | +80% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? | Apr 07 | $1,608 | −$1,607 | -100% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? | Apr 07 | $1,316 | −$1,316 | -100% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? | Apr 07 | $1,211 | −$1,211 | -100% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Apr 07 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by May 15? | Apr 07 | $1,023 | −$1,023 | -100% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | Apr 07 | $11,880 | −$11,879 | -100% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Apr 07 | $808 | −$808 | -100% |
| Will Trump visit China by May 31? | Apr 07 | $1,362 | −$1,362 | -100% |
| Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026? | Apr 06 | $659 | −$659 | -100% |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | Apr 05 | $7,000 | +$762 | +11% |