Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T02:34:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9c95…ed41 other 98 markets active 1d ago coverage 75d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 75d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$104,405 (+24%) realized +$104,510 · open −$105
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -77% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -84% what you keep after slip
Net edge-84%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate8%32W / 387L
Whale WR15%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,451per market
Trades / day45.3pace
Fees−$981est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 75d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$45,759
sports 12% −$17,495
crypto 4% −$6,175
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-78.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 330 -96.2% -96.6% 1% 1% -92.6%
≤30d 357 -88.5% -89.6% 4% 4% -83.3%
≤90d 419 -76.7% -78.9% 8% 7% -66.7%
all 419 -76.7% -78.9% 8% 7% -66.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.3 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -78.9% 7% -66.7%
10% -81.0% 7% -69.9%
15% ← realistic here -82.8% 6% -72.8%
20% -84.5% 6% -75.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -63% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -77% · $-wt -63% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 15% (≥$4,000) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -53% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
32.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6,343 vs −$2,140 · ×2.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$95
Realized+$104,510
Unrealized−$105
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses32 / 387
Whale WR (big bets)15%
Est. fees paid−$981
Open positions1
Markets (closed)419 / 98
History coverage75d ⚠
Avg bet$4,451
Trades / day45.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 419 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Yes 20¢ 10¢ $200 $95 −$105 (-52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 382 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Club Brugge KV win on 2025-12-10? Jun 29 $273 −$273 -100%
Mariners vs. Phillies Jun 29 $343 −$343 -100%
Marlins vs. Nationals Jun 29 $346 −$346 -100%
UFC 318: Judice vs. Caliari Jun 29 $71 −$71 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Astralis (BO3) Jun 29 $239 −$239 -100%
UFC 319: Meerschaert vs. Oleksiejczuk Jun 29 $399 −$399 -100%
Blue Jays vs. Pirates Jun 29 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-01-05? Jun 29 $4,999 −$4,999 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 16, 2026? Jun 29 $410 −$410 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Cerqueira Jun 29 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-01-06? Jun 29 $248 −$197 -79%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-12-09? Jun 29 $267 −$267 -100%
UFC 325: Finney vs. Malkoun (Middleweight, Prelims) Jun 29 $9,191 −$9,191 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jun 29 $226 −$226 -100%
Mavericks vs. 76ers Jun 29 $60 −$60 -100%
Kraken vs. Ducks Jun 29 $473 −$473 -100%
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-12-03? Jun 29 $160 −$160 -100%
Red Sox vs. Padres Jun 29 $42 −$42 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Flyers Jun 29 $139 −$139 -100%
Guardians vs. Red Sox Jun 29 $43 −$43 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-10-22? Jun 29 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Nuggets vs. Clippers Jun 29 $3,690 −$3,690 -100%
Brewers vs. Mariners Jun 29 $46 −$46 -100%
White Sox vs. Mariners Jun 29 $31 −$31 -100%
UFC 322: Cortez vs. Blanchfield (Women's Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 29 $2,700 −$2,700 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-14? Jun 29 $50 −$50 -100%
Diamondbacks vs. Pirates Jun 29 $72 −$72 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Orolbai (Welterweight, Main Card) Jun 29 $2,247 −$2,247 -100%
Will Mali win on 2026-01-09? Jun 29 $1,900 −$1,899 -100%
League of Legends: Bilibili Gaming vs. G2 Jun 29 $220 −$220 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-12-20? Jun 29 $1,800 −$1,800 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-24? Jun 29 $7,500 −$7,500 -100%
Capitals vs. Flyers Jun 29 $8,454 −$8,454 -100%
Will Torino FC win on 2025-12-13? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Imperial (BO1) Jun 29 $283 −$283 -100%
Padres vs. Twins Jun 29 $47 −$47 -100%
Sabres vs. Kraken Jun 29 $4,682 −$4,682 -100%
Will Inter win on 2025-11-09? Jun 29 $2,600 −$2,600 -100%
Royals vs. Tigers Jun 29 $81 −$81 -100%
Will Italy win on 2025-11-13? Jun 29 $1,585 −$1,585 -100%
Celtics vs. Heat Jun 29 $255 −$255 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Bannon vs. Hughes Jun 29 $64 −$64 -100%
UFC 318: Prado vs. Veretennikov Jun 29 $143 −$143 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-08? Jun 29 $6,820 −$6,820 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2025-11-14? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights Jun 29 $4,141 −$4,141 -100%
Blues vs. Predators Jun 29 $2,200 −$2,200 -100%
Will Celtic FC win on 2025-12-27? Jun 29 $2,071 −$2,071 -100%
Hokit vs. Gimenis Jun 29 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 45¢ $9,182 30h
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig BUY Tahir Abdullayev 44¢ $3 41h
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig BUY Tahir Abdullayev 44¢ $8 41h
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig BUY Tahir Abdullayev 44¢ $6 41h
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig BUY Tahir Abdullayev 44¢ $12 41h
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig BUY Tahir Abdullayev 44¢ $106 41h
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig BUY Tahir Abdullayev 44¢ $8 42h
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig BUY Tahir Abdullayev 44¢ $19 43h
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig BUY Tahir Abdullayev 44¢ $160 43h
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig BUY Tahir Abdullayev 44¢ $8 43h
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig BUY Tahir Abdullayev 44¢ $264 43h
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig BUY Tahir Abdullayev 44¢ $1 44h
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig BUY Tahir Abdullayev 44¢ $45 44h
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig BUY Tahir Abdullayev 44¢ $183 44h
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig BUY Tahir Abdullayev 44¢ $1 44h
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig BUY Tahir Abdullayev 44¢ $440 44h
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig BUY Tahir Abdullayev 44¢ $924 44h
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig BUY Tahir Abdullayev 44¢ $440 44h
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig BUY Tahir Abdullayev 44¢ $484 44h
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig BUY Tahir Abdullayev 44¢ $8 45h
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig BUY Tahir Abdullayev 44¢ $52 45h
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig BUY Tahir Abdullayev 44¢ $440 45h
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig BUY Tahir Abdullayev 44¢ $17 45h
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig BUY Tahir Abdullayev 44¢ $7 45h
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig BUY Tahir Abdullayev 44¢ $1 45h
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig BUY Tahir Abdullayev 44¢ $482 45h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 36¢ $415 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 37¢ $7,400 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 46¢ $4,140 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 48¢ $7,680 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95.28 · official $95.00 (match) · 3500 history records