Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:43:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9c92…1f85 crypto 3 markets active 260d ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (154 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$120 (-4%) realized −$120 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,066per market
Trades / day154.0pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% $0
crypto 17% −$120
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 3 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 33% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover154.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 33% -12.9%
10% -18.2% 33% -21.3%
15% ← realistic here -26.1% 33% -28.9%
20% -33.3% 33% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
26.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$208 vs −$328 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$120
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)3 / 3
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1,066
Trades / day154.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 3 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - October 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Oct 13 $328 −$328 -100%
Will T.J. Lavin win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? Oct 12 $2,660 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Oct 12 $208 +$208 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will T.J. Lavin win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? SELL Yes $35 259d
Will T.J. Lavin win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? BUY Yes $35 259d
Will T.J. Lavin win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? SELL Yes $35 259d
Will T.J. Lavin win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? BUY Yes $35 259d
Will T.J. Lavin win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? SELL Yes $35 259d
Will T.J. Lavin win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? BUY Yes $35 259d
Will T.J. Lavin win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? SELL Yes $35 259d
Will T.J. Lavin win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? BUY Yes $35 259d
Will T.J. Lavin win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? SELL Yes $35 259d
Will T.J. Lavin win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? BUY Yes $35 259d
Will T.J. Lavin win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? SELL Yes $35 259d
Will T.J. Lavin win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? BUY Yes $35 259d
Will T.J. Lavin win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? SELL Yes $35 259d
Ethereum Up or Down - October 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $328 259d
Will T.J. Lavin win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? BUY Yes $35 259d
Will T.J. Lavin win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? SELL Yes $35 259d
Will T.J. Lavin win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? BUY Yes $35 259d
Will T.J. Lavin win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? SELL Yes $35 259d
Will T.J. Lavin win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? BUY Yes $35 259d
Will T.J. Lavin win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? SELL Yes $35 259d
Will T.J. Lavin win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? BUY Yes $35 259d
Will T.J. Lavin win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? SELL Yes $35 259d
Will T.J. Lavin win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? BUY Yes $35 259d
Will T.J. Lavin win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? SELL Yes $35 259d
Will T.J. Lavin win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? BUY Yes $35 259d
Will T.J. Lavin win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? SELL Yes $35 259d
Will T.J. Lavin win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? BUY Yes $35 259d
Will T.J. Lavin win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? SELL Yes $35 259d
Will T.J. Lavin win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? BUY Yes $35 259d
Will T.J. Lavin win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? SELL Yes $35 259d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 156 history records