Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:07:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9c91…6795 sports 144 markets active 1h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$545 (+6%) realized +$540 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate49%70W / 72L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Fees−$101est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$163
7 days−$78
14 days+$181
30 days+$204
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$217
politics 10% +$86
world 7% +$256
other 5% −$229
crypto 1% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +20.6% +9.1% 53% 45% -15.2%
≤30d 133 +1.7% -8.0% 50% 44% -7.1%
≤90d 142 -0.2% -9.7% 49% 42% -6.1%
all 142 -0.2% -9.7% 49% 42% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 42% -6.1%
10% -18.3% 28% -15.1%
15% -26.2% 24% -23.3%
20% -33.5% 21% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$28 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$540
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses70 / 72
Est. fees paid−$101
Open positions2
Markets (closed)142 / 144
History coverage35d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 142 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bang Si-hyuk charged in 2026? No 31¢ 38¢ $34 $43 +$8 (+25%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 70¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $30 +$23 +75%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $6 +$7 +128%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 −$3 -95%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$17 +55%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $7 +$3 +38%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $41 −$4 -9%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $83 +$47 +57%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $86 −$2 -2%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $68 −$13 -19%
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $2 +$3 +109%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $2 −$1 -43%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon Jun 16 $10 +$1 +13%
Parma: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Francesco Passaro Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $228 −$228 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $13 +$2 +17%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -86%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -92%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 −$5 -88%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $12 +$3 +28%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $49 +$71 +143%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $29 +$42 +144%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $32 +$58 +178%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $29 −$28 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $22 −$19 -86%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $19 +$11 +57%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $30 +$7 +24%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $134 −$13 -10%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $31 −$26 -83%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $30 +$3 +9%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 12 $5 +$1 +18%
Ilkley: Arthur Gea vs Mark Lajal Jun 12 $31 +$7 +23%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $15 +$23 +154%
Tucuman: Federico Coria vs Andrea Collarini Jun 11 $7 +$1 +19%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Tucuman: Maximo Zeitune vs Arklon Del Pino Jun 10 $10 +$1 +6%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 10 $13 −$13 -99%
Tucuman: Segundo Goity Zapico vs Federico Coria Jun 10 $13 +$10 +80%
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 W Jun 10 $16 +$24 +150%
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 2 W Jun 10 $8 +$11 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -94%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $77 +$49 +63%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $13 −$9 -69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 75¢ $27 31m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 28¢ $10 35m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 69¢ $7 35m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 70¢ $10 36m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 94¢ $14 46m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 94¢ $3 46m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 94¢ $4 46m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 94¢ $24 46m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 56¢ $27 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 94¢ $53 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 53¢ $30 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 3h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 3h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $13 3h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $7 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 8h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 58¢ $10 9h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 57¢ $20 9h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 86¢ $27 10h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 87¢ $3 10h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $130 10h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $83 10h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 88¢ $85 10h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 89¢ $86 10h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 10¢ $19 10h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $36 10h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $35 11h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $32 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.81 · official $48.37 · 460 history records