Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:29:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9c91…afaa other 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$99 (-26%) realized −$99 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -56% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -64% what you keep after slip
Net edge-64%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%1W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit23%portable
Net worth$150now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% −$81
sports 6% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-60.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -56.3% -60.5% 12% 12% -46.9%
≤30d 8 -56.3% -60.5% 12% 12% -46.9%
≤90d 8 -56.3% -60.5% 12% 12% -46.9%
all 8 -56.3% -60.5% 12% 12% -46.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -60.5% 12% -46.9%
10% -64.3% 12% -51.9%
15% -67.7% 12% -56.6%
20% -70.9% 12% -60.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -56% · $-wt -41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$16 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$150
Realized−$99
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses1 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)8 / 13
History coverage2d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $80 $80 −$0 (-0%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 94¢ $10 $19 +$9 (+85%)
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 $0 -0%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$12 +57%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $31 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $82 1h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $9 19h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $100 19h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 20h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 20h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 20h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 44h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $100 44h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 44h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 44h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 44h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $50 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $150.44 · official $150.44 (match) · 16 history records