Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:08:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9c91…4056 crypto 532 markets active 6d ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$32 (-2%) realized −$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%284W / 248L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day24.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$31
14 days−$66
30 days−$67
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$96
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -7.2% -16.1% 49% 49% -24.0%
≤30d 245 -3.3% -12.5% 49% 49% -18.1%
≤90d 532 -0.1% -9.6% 53% 53% -14.4%
all 532 -0.1% -9.6% 53% 53% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.6% 53% -14.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 51% -22.6%
15% -26.2% 46% -30.1%
20% -33.4% 40% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses284 / 248
Open positions0
Markets (closed)532 / 532
History coverage34d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day24.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 532 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$4 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$4 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 11 $6 +$4 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$5 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 11 $6 +$3 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$7 +175%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$3 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$4 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$5 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$2 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 11 $8 +$4 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $8 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $9 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.97 · official $1.97 (match) · 1194 history records